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August 31, 2009

At last: An explanation for high June/July tides

Lots of Marylanders noticed it. A few sent me emails asking why the tides in Maryland during June and early July seemed so persistently high - from a few inches to a few feet at times, with some minor coastal flooding. I said it was likely a combination of astronomical effects, and persistent wind and weather patterns.

Well, I was mostly right.

Scientists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration noticed the persistently high sea levels, too, and set out to find the explanation. On Monday, they issued a 40-page report on the phenomenon, which blames it on a combination of (ta-da!) "steady and persistent Northeast winds," and a weakening of something called the Florida Current Transport.

"The ocean is dynamic and it's not uncommon to have anomalies," said Mike Szabados, director of NOAA's Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services. "What made this event unique was its breadth, intensity and duration."

The report's executive summary notes, as I did, that high tides in the latter part of June coincided with a "perigean spring tide." That's when the moon is at perigee (nearest to Earth), and aligned opposite the sun in a "new moon" phase (June 22), which causes higher-than-average "spring tides." Those factors amplified the tides, the report said.

Ocean City August 1998But such astronomical factors are included in the forecast tide levels. What occurred was well beyond those predictions. And it was wind and current that really made the high tides notable.

In June, winds from Cape Hatteras to the Gulf of Maine had a persistent northeast component, the report said. That drove ocean and bay waters to the southwest, piling it up against the east-facing shorelines, raising sea levels and holding them higher than predicted levels, even during the times of low tides.

South of Hatteras, winds were mostly out of the southwest. The high sea levels observed there, the report found, were not the result of winds, but of a slackening of the Florida Current, which flows through the Florida Straits and feeds into the Gulf Stream. And when the Florida Current relaxes, the coastal sea levels along the Southeast Atlantic coast rises. When the Florida Current picked up again in mid-July, sea levels returned to normal.

"The June-July 2009 anomaly is unique," the NOAA scientists concluded, not because the Northeast winds and the Florida Current were at remarkable extremes, but because the two in combination created conditions that affected the entire U.S. East Coast, from Maine to Florida, simultaneously.

And the stretch from the Carolinas to New Jersey -including Maryland - were where the two forces overlapped to create the most extreme effects.

There has been nothing like it, over such a broad geography, the report says, in any spring/summer period since at least as far back as 1980.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 1:20 PM | | Comments (1)
Categories: Flooding
        

Comments

Thanks for the interesting breakdown!

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About Frank Roylance
This site is the Maryland Weather archive. The current Maryland Weather blog can be found here.
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page. Frank also answers readers’ weather queries for the newspaper and the blog. Frank Roylance retired in October 2011. Maryland Weather is now being updated by members of The Baltimore Sun staff
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