The 11 a.m. update from the National Hurricane Center puts the chances that winds along the mid-Atlantic coast will top tropical storm force (39 mph or more) this weekend at 20 to 30 percent.

That's the message from the tropical Storm Winds Probability Map (above) posted this morning. The actual outcome will depend, of course, on where the steering currents take Danny. The consensus keeps the storm well offshore. But it's a sprawling system, with tropical storm winds extending as much as 200 miles from the center.

High winds, even offshore, will increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents at the beaches this weekend. Danny is also expected to bring plenty of rain to the eastern part of Maryland this weekend, while an approaching cold front does the same for Central Maryland.

Late Thursday morning, Danny's top sustained winds were clocked at around 60 mph. That's 14 mph short of hurricane strength. But some continued strengthening was forecast for the next few days as the storm's center moves over warmer waters in the Gulf Stream.

Danny's problem has been a poorly organized center and high-altitude winds that have thwarted rapid development.

The storm's center late this morning was about 550 miles south southeast of Cape Hatteras. It was moving toward the northwest at 13 mph, but that movement was a bit erratic. Danny was expected to turn more toward the north later today, and increase its forward speed.

The storm's greatest threat may be along the New England coast and the Canadian Maritime Provinces. Here is the latest forecast advisory for Danny. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

While we're at it, the National Hurricane Center is already watching the next storm in the Atlantic basin. The tropical disturbance in the far eastern Atlantic is given less than a 30 percent chance of becoming a tropical storm in the next 48 hours.