Looks like the long holiday weekend will carry a risk of showers and thunderstorms clear through Saturday night, with a 30 percent risk that storms will impact the fireworks. Sunday's forecast, for now, comes with no mention of rain, so if the pyrotechnics are postponed, Sunday should be ideal. (That's what happened in 2007. Sun outdoors writer Candus Thomson snapped the pic at left at the Inner Harbor on the 5th. Amazing.)

But the highest chances for thunder and lightning come tonight, rated at a "likely" 70 percent. So far, all the convection on radar appears to be well to our west, just beginning to move into western Virginia at 4 p.m. But forecasters out at Sterling seem pretty confident things will fire up around the I-95 corridor by 8 p.m. EDT, and cross the Chesapeake by 10.

After tonight, rain chances diminish to the 20-30 percent range, save for 50 percent tomorrow night. That should allow us some sunshine, at least, and time to enjoy the mild, low-80s temperatures over the holiday weekend.

Headed for the beaches? Here's the Ocean City forecast. Looks like folks headed east will have fine weather after Thursday night. No rain in the forecast at all for the weekend, with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. Perfect. 

Going west? The forecast for Oakland, in Garrett County looks a bit wetter and grayer. But Independence Day itself looks good. Rain chances return for Sunday. Bring a book.