So there are a few snowflake icons in tonight's Baltimore forecast this morning. That was unexpected. But the morning discussion out of the Sterling forecast office doesn't seem to support the idea that any of those flakes will make it this far north. Southern Maryland may be another story. Here's the deal:

High pressure is building into our region,. The clockwise circulation around the east side of the high is the reason we're feeling these chilly winds out of the north. Today's high probably won't reach 50 degrees.

At the same time, there's plenty of moisture tracking along with the jet stream at the southern boundary of the big dome of cold air. Where that moisture gets high enough and collides with the cold air being dragged south by the high, there could be light snow.

Forecasters at Sterling aren't sure yet about the details, but they seem to feel any accumulating snow tonight will stay in the southern and western portions of their forecast area, namely central Virginia and Southern Maryland. It's less likely to get into the District of Columbia and the Shenandoah Valley. There is no mention of points north, including Baltimore. Here's how the Hazardous Weather Outlook reads this morning:

"A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND LOWER
SOUTHERN MARYLAND... MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL JUST AFTER
SUNRISE"

Not everyone is persuaded that the snow won't be felt in the Baltimore region. Here's Dr. Foot's forecast. He's hinting at some surprise school delays tomorrow morning. At AccuWeather.com, Elliot Abrams figures anything that does reach Baltimore won't stick (or "lay," if you're a native.)

Looking farther out, to Sunday and Monday, forecasters do see a 30 percent chance for badly needed showers as a weak storm sets up off the Georgia coast and tracks toward the northeast. The rain is rated as only "moderate." We could use plenty more. The Drought Monitor map out this morning still shows 73 percent of the state is "abnormally dry." There's no change from last week, but the percentage is up from zero on Jan. 1.

How does the water level in Liberty Reservoir look? Anyone have any pictures?