Driest year on record - so far
BWI has received just 3.79 inches of precipitation so far this year, and barely an inch since Jan. 29. We've had only 1.87 inches in 2009 on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville.
National Weather Service forecaster Andy Woodcock, out at Sterling, had these observations this morning about the dry weather:
"AS OPPOSED TO THE NEAR RECORD FLOODING ONGOING IN THE UPPER MIDWEST...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH NOTING HOW DRY THIS YEAR HAS BEEN SO FAR. \
"AT BWI AND IAD (DULLES) THIS HAS STARTED AS THE DRIEST YEAR ON RECORD...AND BALTIMORE`S RECORDS GO BACK 139 YRS. DCA (REAGAN NATIONAL) IS 4TH DRIEST ON RECORD.
"SOMETIMES I BRING THE ADAGE "WHEN IN DROUGHT LEAVE IT OUT" INTO THE DISCUSSION WHEN REFERRING TO PRECIPITATION FORECASTING. THE FLIP OF THAT IS "IT TAKES A FLOOD TO
BREAK A DROUGHT." THAT ONE HASN`T ALWAYS WORKED..AND PREFERABLY WON`T THIS YR...BUT TIME WILL TELL. IN MEANTIME FIRE THREAT IS A GREATER CONCERN.
"WHAT WE COULD USE IS A COASTAL LOW THAT SITS OFF OF ORF (NORFOLK) FOR A FEW
DAYS...BUT THAT ISN`T COMING IN THE NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST
COAST ON TUES AND 1ST PART OF WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPUTATION W/ THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT WOULD PROBABLY BE ON WEDS NIGHT...BUT SO FAR THIS YEAR FRONTS TRACKING ACROSS THE COUNTRY HAVE HAD THE TENDENCY TO DRY UP AS THESE REACH
THE APPALACHIANS...AND MY SUSPICION IS THIS MAY HAPPEN AGAIN.
"PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND...BUT W/ LOW TAKING
MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES I REMAIN SUSPICOUS."
Comments
.So is this simply note worthy or a cause for major concern? Will this be another major drought like back in '96? What is the long term spring forecast for precip? Are we looking at water restrictions like we had in '96 and again in '99 if I remember correctly?
FR: At this point I would consider this "noteworthy." The long-term forecast for April shows below-average precipitation, but the longer outlooks show no clear departure from the norms either way for this region. That could change, of course. Here are the long-range forecasts: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1
Posted by: Drew | March 23, 2009 10:37 AM