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February 27, 2009

Spring today; winter this weekend

Cold front approaches 

At 10:30 a.m. we've already reached 60 degrees in downtown Baltimore - topping the NWS forecast (59 degrees) for the afternoon's high. But before you put away your winter togs, you need to know that we're in for a - you guessed it - "wintry mix" this weekend as sharply colder air and a coastal storm move in.

Sorry. Here's the deal:

The warm air we're enjoying this morning is sweeping up from the South on a stiff breeze ahead of an approaching cold front. My weather vane - the giant U.S. flag at Bob Evans in Timonium - was rippling and streaming hard toward the north this morning.

The south winds are also bringing in rain showers, which you can see in the satellite photo above as they drift east and squeeze out the last of the clear skies over Maryland. (That will also blot out a beautiful close conjunction tonight of Venus and the crescent moon, in the western sky after sunset.)

The rain should reach our region around lunchtime today.  The precip ushers in a cold front that extends southward from a low moving into Eastern Canada today.

After the front passes by to our east, temperatures here will drop toward a forecast low of 37 degrees tonight, and a daytime high tomorrow of just 42 degrees - perhaps 20 degrees colder than today.

That's when the trouble begins. The western counties could see snow showers after midnight. After the cold front reaches the Carolina border, Saturday morning, low pressure will develop along the Gulf Coast and head north and east to emerge off the coast of North Carolina.

As that low spins up, it will start to throw plenty of moisture onshore. Winds will become north, then northeast here on Saturday, with afternoon rain that could amount to as much as a quarter inch.

The rain will continue into the evening Saturday. But as temperatures sink toward a low near freezing, we should expect an overnight mix of rain, snow and sleet into the early hours of Sunday morning. Melted totals could reach a half-inch, according to the forecast from Sterling. And before it ends Sunday night, we could see a bit of snow as temperatures drop back into the mid-20s.

UPDATE 5:30 p.m.: There is some chatter about accumulating snow and ice, with school delays Monday. But forecasters at Sterling are doubtful.

I know ... Ick. But in whatever form it arrives, we need the moisture. The cold? We're stuck with it for a while longer, it seems. Monday's forecast high is just 34 degrees, with a low of 22 before dawn on Tuesday. At least we should see some sunshine again.

Today's high is not headed for record territory. It was 76 degrees on this date in 1997. The record low is 20 degrees, in 1934.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:27 AM | | Comments (3)
Categories: Forecasts
        

Comments

Curious Frank - speaking of needing the moisture - what has been our history in terms of yearly rainfall the past several years? Have we been been significantly short? Have we been over every year? Seems like the past several years we have always ended up in the "plus" territory by the end of the year in terms of precip being above average. Thanks.

FR: If you look at calendar-year totals, we have had four years of below-average precipitation in the last 10 years. But that can be misleading, at least as far as agriculture is concerned. What counts for farmers is what's available during the planting and growing seasons. You can work that out for yourself. Here are the monthly totals and annual averages for BWI: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/climate/bwi/bwiprecip.txt

Hi,
I have never made a practice of reading blogs before; (who has the time I wonder?). However, I just wanted to let you know that I love yours. Your combination of weather, explanations for the weather, and upcoming "stargazing" events are wonderfully interesting. Thank you for doing this!
Lee
(A chemistry teacher)

FR: Thanks!

Frank, I woke up this morning and checked weather.com only to see a winter storm watch through Monday morning. "THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF 5 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW. "

That came out of nowhere!

FR: Well, not exactly nowhere. There has been a great deal of chatter this week about a coastal storm and a chance for accumulating snow this weekend. But there has also been a lot of doubt about whether the cold front that passed by yesterday would be cold enough; about timing and precipitation type. Sounds a lot like what we've heard all winter long. Anyway, I've tried not to hype this thing based on all that uncertainty. I'm going to wait a while longer, until the computer models have settled down a bit.

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About Frank Roylance
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page.

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