Snow fever spikes
Well, I'm not going to venture any prognostications about this late-weekend storm that's got everybody buzzing. We've had too many disappointments this winter. But it is my duty, I suppose, to pass along the various forecasts and hypecasts that are taking up so much Web bandwidth today. I'll let you draw your own conclusions.
First, the National Weather Service: The forecasters at Sterling have, of course, issued a Winter Storm Watch today. It's in effect from Sunday night through Monday morning. The watch - as all watches must - says 5 inches or more are possible. But that's no guarantee we'll get that much. By the same token, we could get more. The 5-day forecast doesn't suggest much in the way of accumulations. Yet. Here's the latest discussion from Sterling.
The Watch notes that low pressure is developing on the Gulf Coast, and is expected to cross to the Georgia coast, strengthen, and spin up the Atlantic seaboard, throwing lots of moisture onshore, into the cold air that settled over us late yesterday.
For the school kids and teachers hoping for a day off on Monday, I offer Prof. Foot's Forecast. He's looking for 6 to 10 inches to fall from the sky, but says warm surfaces and the late season's high sun angles will likely keep the effective accumulations to 5 inches. He's comparing this storm with one at this same time of year in 2005 that left only 5 inches or less behind.
For hype addicts, there is always AccuWeather.com. Henery "the Madman" Margusity seems to be asleep at the switch today, so here's Elliot Abrams.
Are you truly a weather/snow junkie? Here's the EasternUS weather forum. Somebody there is predicting a foot of snow on the Eastern Shore. Dig in.
And here is the AccuWeather.com snowmap, which seems to show the heaviest accumulations south of Baltimore and on the upper Eastern Shore.
Me? I'm not holding my breath. And The Sun hasn't asked me to dust off the "Physiology of snow shoveling" story that's been on hold since December 2007, waiting for a shovel-worthy storm.
Am I so wrong? What's your prediction? Fab or Flop?
Comments
Seeing as how Accuweather and everyone else has been batting .000 this season with snowfall predictions, I'd be shocked if we get more than a light coating on the roads/sidewalks.
Posted by: Steve | February 28, 2009 4:15 PM
Flop! Atleast for Central MD and anywhere north/west. You just know that Winter Storm Watch is going to be a Winter Weather Advisory.
I cannot express how much I hate Winter Weather Advisories.
Posted by: Dakota Smith | February 28, 2009 4:47 PM
Historical note: While significant March snows are not impossible, they are extremely rare:
Not the March of the Penguins.
Anything over 2.1" in DC after midnight Sunday would be a record for Mar. 2. The BWI record is 3.7".
Posted by: CapitalClimate | February 28, 2009 7:06 PM
Little...if any...consensus among the NWP models.
Antecedent conditions in the low-levels are warm; however...upper-air dynamics are favorable for accumulating snows along I-95 from RIC - BGR.
Most troubling indication from where I sit: much of the forecast snowfall hinges on 'phasing'of the northern and southern jet streams (always problematic) and attends passage of the system/s 'comma head'... which looked more than a tad anemic on today/s progs.
Pick the right model...you come off looking like a genius. Lean the wrong way...and you/re Heck-of-a-Job 'Charlie' Brownie.
Posted by: TQ | February 28, 2009 11:35 PM