Saturday dries up; storm rumors for next week
The computer models seem, finally, to have sorted out the path of the rain/snow storm that forecasters have been saying would slide by on Saturday. The consensus now is that it will largely fizzle, and pass too far to our south to affect the urban centers, although lower Southern Maryland could still see some precipitation.
That leaves us with a mostly seasonable forecast through the weekend, with sun and clouds and temperatures about average for this time of year - although way cooler than the spring-like air 
we've enjoyed this week.
After topping out above 50 degrees this afternoon, temperatures will drop below freezing tonight as cold, clear, dry air continues to build into the region behind the departing low that brought us yesterday's wind storm. (The bad hair day at left was in Philly.)
As the high moves off the coast tonight, the storm will approach from the southwest, but the precipitation threat will be held to Central Virginia and far Southern Maryland. We should stay dry.
Sunday looks sunnier, with seasonable temperatures. President's Day will be the coldest of the lot, sunny, but with a high only in the 30s and a low in the lower 20s.
The next chance for precipitation around here comes Wednesday or Thursday, but the storm track, of course, remains uncertain. And forecasters are hedging their bets for now, predicting a rain/snow mix.
But some winter-watchers see the developing scenario as a potential snow-maker for our region, maybe the last chance for a decent snowfall this season. Here's Prof. Foot, of Foot's Forecast, on the subject.
And here's AccuWeather.com's Elliot Abrams' analysis of the storm risk.
Comments
Frank,
It wasn't all dried up and regions to the north of the Metro areas saw snow on Saturday and it was more than just a twenty minute snow shower.
Light, to even periods of moderate snow, started to fall during late afternoon in the Martinsburg WV area, and it lasted two plus hours while heading east into Northern MD.
But the warmer ground kept it from accumulating until near the end.
But it was enough to whiten the grass and it started to stick on windshields, roofs, and patio furniture.
So my Valentine Day call for snow wasn't all that bad especially when you consider how far out my initial call was made. (January 21st)
And it was also 70 degrees a few days earlier. So I'd call this a legitmate pattern change.
FR: We were in Philly this weekend, and walked through some snow Saturday night after dinner. Nothing stuck, but it was snowing. A pattern change? Maybe, as a technical matter. But for those of us on the ground, it's still the same ole same-ole: A promise of snow, followed by a few flakes and little to speak of on the ground.
Posted by: Jim Hughes | February 16, 2009 8:03 AM
Frank, I was using the term pattern change to describe us going away from a warmer pattern that couldn't support any type of snowfall due to the extreme warmth. And we even saw some snow showers around the region today also.
And I have always asked people this question. Why can't it be 70 degrees, or even 60 degrees, during my long range three day snow calls ? Because I've been making these extended calls since 1994 and this has never happened.
Posted by: Jim Hughes | February 16, 2009 10:16 PM