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February 2, 2009

Never mind ... snow "threat" dwindles

Once more our snow-lovers' hopes are dashed. What could have been a shovel-worthy storm - and maybe our first snowfall to top 5 inches in three years - appears to have melted away in this morning's forecast. An inch and a half of accumulating snow is the most forecasters out at Sterling can offer for tomorrow.

AccuWeather.comThe Gulf storm that late last week looked like it might drop up to 6 inches on the I-95 cities is now expected to pass too far off the coast to deliver a big, snowy punch here. Forecasters are calling it "a glancing blow." They're attaching the boiler-plate CYA tag: "Any deviation from the projected path of the low would cause the forecast to change." But that seems a long-shot at best.

You can compare the AccuWeather.com snow map at left with those we posted over the past 3 or 4 days and see where the snow went. Here's Henry "Madman" Margusity eating his hat.

Look for increasing clouds and rain late today, changing over to rain and snow tonight, followed by perhaps an inch of snow during the day Tuesday. After all the hype, a dusting. And with all the salt on the roads, it's hard to imagine much impact on transportation tomorrow. One to two inches are possible north and west of the city.

Temperatures will rise to a spring-like 50 degrees at BWI today (it's already 51 here at The Sun), until a weak cold front begins to press through. But even that won't chill things off very much. Tonight's low will sink to about 30 degrees, and tomorrow's high of 35 degrees will make it tough for any snow that falls to stick around long enough to be an issue.

Colder air is coming. Tuesday night's low is forecast to drop into the teens, and Wednesday's high probably won't get above freezing. Wednesday night and Thursday will be cold, too, in the teens. But once the high moves off, and more southerly breezes take over, we'll head toward the 60-degree mark by the weekend - maybe 15 degrees above the long-term averages.

Sorry about the snow. Maybe next time. Can't wait for snow here? Fly to London.

Photo by Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:37 AM | | Comments (4)
Categories: Forecasts
        

Comments

A lot of snow, a little snow, no snow...these constantly changing forecasts are exhausting. I can't abide this endless vacillation any longer. Let us cast our fate before the weather deities and have done with it. Snow lovers, let us hope that Crystal, the goddess of snow in a pantheon that I just invented right this second, will smile upon us most generously, as prophesied by that furriest of soothsayers, Punxsutawney Phil.

Things are now trending west. Better up the snow totals. The Euro model has increassed QPF and the cold front is stalling which will allow waves of LP to move along the front and WEST of the earlier model tracks.

FR: Yeah, well, we'll see about that. Official forecast has not gotten any snowier. An inch and a half max at BWI. AccuWeather boys haven't changed their tune, either.

A good, keep-you-at-home-in-your-pyjamas snowstorm has become about as uncommon in these parts as getting hit straight on by an Atlantic hurricane... What's going on, Frank? What happened to all those 6"-plus snows of my youth (70's and 80's)?
FR:The data tell the story. BWI is trending toward warmer winter average temps and so less snow overall these days, but more extreme snowstorms when they do occur, like those in 2003, 1996 and 1993. Let's see ... warmer winters, more precipitation extremes ... Where have I heard that prediction?

Maybe next time... Marylanders hear that way to much.

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About Frank Roylance
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page.

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