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January 8, 2009

More "wintry mix" ahead; real winter next week

It appears that snow lovers in Central Maryland will suffer more teases and disappointments this weekend, as forecasters reprise their "wintry mix" forecasts in Saturday's predictions. But there is real winter cold in store for us next week, if the long-range forecast holds. And that could set the stage for actual snow late next week. More in a minute.

Frostburg StateFor now, we're looking at a few flurries across parts of the Baltimore region. We saw saw flakes on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville this morning, even though air temperatures at the surface were above freezing. Frederick and points north and west also reported some flurries and snow showers this morning. That's Frostburg State at left.

But that will be it for now. The forecasters' real focus is more on Saturday's weather. Today's sunny breaks and blustery winds signal the arrival of high pressure as the recent two-day rain departs to the northeast. That will bring us more sunshine, colder temperatures and gusty winds tomorrow.

But once that high begins to move off the coast late on Friday, clouds will return ahead of the next storm system. The timing remains uncertain, but if the expected "clipper" system arrives early, it will likely start as snow, especially in the usual northern and western suburbs. On the other hand (there's always another hand), temperatures will once again be marginal, so there's a good chance all we'll see will be freezing rain - except, again, near the Mason Dixon Line. Sound familiar?

Here's AccuWeather.com's take on the clipper, which is expected to deal more harshly with Philly and NYC. And here is AccuWeather.com blogger Henry Margusity.

Best to expect that old "wintry mix" on Saturday. But as the low departs and colder air moves in, whatever is falling could switch back to snow before it all ends late Saturday night. Sterling has posted a very tentative "Hazardous Weather Outlook" for Baltimore and its suburbs, noting that "a wintry mix of snow and rain may be possible," changing to rain.

In Western Allegany and Garrett, it's a "Winter Weather Advisory," alerting residents there to the possibility of 1 to 2 inches of accumulation from TODAY's snow showers.

Sunday we start to see more serious cold moving into the region. High pressure moves back on Sunday and Monday, with highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s. With the cold air, a clipper-type storm could pass by to our north on Monday or Tuesday and leave us a bit of snow, forecasters say. And behind that, even colder air moves down from the arctic. Wednesday's highs may not leave the 20s.

"Cold air will be around through the end of the week," this morning's forecast discussion says. "So any approaching systems would most likely produce snow across the area. Right now, one such system could approach on Friday."

Margusity hinted at a snowstorm "from Virginia to New England." Okay, it's a long way off, an eternity in forecasting terms. But it's the only shred of hope - or fear - Sterling has to offer. 

So let Sterling hear you: Do we want some real snow for the first time in years, and some snow days this month? Or would you rather stay home with a pencil in your eye? 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:10 AM | | Comments (2)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Comments

Hey Frank,

I only have thirty rolls of Charmin in the hall closet. Do you think this is enough? Seriously, I'd love to see some snow but only if it is a blizzard of epic proportions...enough to close the state for a few days.

Do you see any warm-up coming after the next couple weeks? Joe B. at Accuweather has been talking for some time about a warm end to winter. Even The Weather Channel showed a graphic about a week ago which had us in an "above normal" temperature range from January through March. If it doesn't snow like crazy, I'd rather see it warm up.

-Mike
Linthicum, MD

FR:Everybody's guessing. Forecasts for the winter season made last fall predicted a wintry December, followed by a milder January, followed by a wintry finish later in February. I always worry about the second and third week of February. That's when we've seen the majority of our biggest storms. The feds say we could go either way for the rest of the season, but we're mighty close to a vast area of the central and southern sections of the US expected to see milder-than-normal weather. That may be the graphic you refer to. Here's the link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp.gif I say it will warm up by June.

I just stumbled onto this site today and I love it! I am a Rockville resident and I have a 3 1/2 year old daughter who asks me every morning if it snowed. I continually tell her no and she continually looks disappointed. Will we see some snow, even a hint of snow or do I have to pack the family up and move to Canada?

FR: A hint, maybe. But a move to, at least, Pennsylvania this weekend would help.

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About Frank Roylance
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page.

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