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January 29, 2009

Ice lingers; rain and snow next week

Finally got my favorite teacher out of the cabin and back to work today. Schools had a delayed opening, but that didn't stop her being there at the regular hour. Now if the kids will just settle down...

Welcome sunshine today should help melt the remaining glaze off steps and walks. But the daytime high won't impress at 35 degrees. The barometer finally turned upward yesterday afternoon, marking the passage of another cold front, which halted the rising temperatures as they passed 40 degrees or so. The overnight low here at The Sun was 28 degrees.

Sun Photo/Amy DavisAs the cold, high pressure air mass moves off the coast late today, we'll watch for the next cold front moving our way from the Upper Midwest. That could bring snow showers to the mountains, with only a slight chance we'll see some here. Expect clearing skies and a colder night Friday into Saturday, with a low of 19 or so.

The weekend looks mostly sunny, with temperatures warming by Sunday and Monday into the 40s.

From there, forecasters expect a strong coastal storm to develop, and as it moves northward up the coast it will draw warmer, wetter air into the region. That should mean rain for our area to start. But counter-clockwise circulation around the low will eventually drag colder air down from the north as the storm moves along.

Forecast models differ on whether that will mean more rain or a change to snow for us Monday afternoon. One computer sees snow spreading eastward across the area Monday night. The other  calls for rain.

Here's AccuWeather.com's assessment. And here is AccuWeather.com's blogger Henry Margusity, with his customary hype.

Sterling's discussion says that in either case, "by Tuesday, cold air invades, and any wraparound precipitation should be snow." How much? They can't say yet. But the track record for this season so far is none too impressive.

Snow totals at BWI for this most recent storm came to 1.9 inches. For the season: 2.7 inches. Clearly some of us have seen more. And the western counties have had plenty. And this week's ice storm caused plenty of consternation, even at the White House. But if we're going to break out of the snow-starved pattern of the past two years, it's probably going to have to happen in February.

Remember that five of the 10 biggest snowstorms in Baltimore have occurred between Feb. 11 and 18.

128.2 inches ... Feb. 15-18, 20031114.1 inches ... Dec. 11-12, 1960
226.5 inches  ... Jan. 27-29, 19221213.1  inches ... Feb. 11-12, 2006
322.8 inches ... Feb. 11, 19831313.0  inches ... Mar. 5-7, 1962
422.5 inches ... Jan. 7-8, 19961412.3 inches ... Jan. 22, 1987
522.0 inches ... Mar. 29-30, 19421512.1 inches ... Jan. 30-31, 1966
621.4 inches ... Feb. 11-14, 18991612.0 inches ... Feb. 16-18, 1900
720.0 inches ... Feb. 18-19, 19791711.9 inches ... Mar. 13-14, 1993
816.0 inches ... Mar. 15-18, 18921811.7 inches ... Feb. 5-8, 1899
915.5 inches ... Feb. 15, 19581911.5 inches ... Dec. 17-18, 1932
1014.9 inches ... Jan. 25, 20002011.5 inches ... Mar. 21-22, 1964

Here's an interesting pattern: Among the top-20 storms, we see them in 1993, 1996, 2000, 2003 and 2006. That's every three or four years for the past 16 years. Aren't we due? 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 9:48 AM | | Comments (3)
Categories: Forecasts
        

Comments

keeping my fingers crossed for a February snow pattern!! The active weather the past few days has been great, now I'd like a good snow!

Hear, hear! More snow, please!

I've been alive for 13 of the 20. I suddonly feel like I could be one of those old men telling remember when stories. Accually, I do have have good memories of storms from 66 to 83 being young and stupid.

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About Frank Roylance
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page.

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