Forecast models overnight have been moving the projected track of next week's storm farther to the east. If that trend continues, it would increase the chances the Baltimore and Washington would see a significant snowfall Monday night into Tuesday. But only after some initial rain.

As is so often the case around here, nobody's really sure yet where that track will finally decide to go. A drift to the left might take the storms along the Appalachians to our west, or directly over us, and that would give us a heck of a rain storm, but little significant snow.

Inland locations from the Great Lakes to New England seem to be in line for a big snow no matter what happens. Some locations could see blizzard conditions. And big rains and winds in coastal regions could trigger all sorts of runoff and flooding problems.  

What snow lovers here want to look for is a storm path that drifts right, and takes the low out to sea to our south, and then up the coast to our east. That would allow more cold air to drop down, start the changeover to snow sooner and allow it to pile up higher before the storm goes away.

For now, all the prognostication seems to have very cold air moving into Maryland tonight, with some snow showers possible and an overnight low in the teens. Saturday's high will stick in the mid-30s, with sunshine. As the high departs on Sunday, it will draw warmer air in from the South, pushing daytime highs into the 40s, and maybe even some 50s. Great for Super Bowl parties; not so much for snow.

But the show really starts on Monday. The National Weather Service is currently predicting the storm center will move off the coast Monday, bringing us rain first . But the storm's passage will also draw  that big surge of cold air down from the north and west Monday evening. The changeover to snow - if it comes - will depend on the timing. If the cold air arrives in time, the rain will change to snow.

The NWS discussion this morning says: "Rain expected by Monday afternoon [in] all areas except along the Allegheny Front, where cold air invades by late afternoon. Expect cold air to advance eastward Monday evening, with snow spreading to the Blue Ridge by late evening, and perhaps as far as the metro areas by morning."

On the other hand, one of the models - the GFS - takes the storm right through Washington, DC, which would mean heavy rain - an inch or two for the cities overnight, forecasters said.

Even so, they add, "regardless of the storm track Monday night, cold air should spread across the region by Tuesday morning, and any precipitation Tuesday/Tuesday evening should be snow" as the storm pulls away.

Not the definitive forecast we'd like, but things should become crystal clear by Sunday. So prepare to flip between the Super Bowl and the Weather Channel.

And if you snow lovers need some hype to keep your hopes up, here's AccuWeather.com's Hypster Extraordinaire, Henry Margusity, who's calling the current storm track forecast "a great track now to dump heavy snow in D.C. and Baltimore."  (That's the 1983 storm in the B&W photo above.) 

Here's AccuWeather.com's lead story on the storm.