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January 27, 2009

Forecast: This storm's not over

It sure looks like it's stopped. But forecasters at Sterling say there is another, more intense low-pressure system rolling into West Virginia and southwestern Pennsylvania tonight. It is expected to bring us more snow tonight until warming temperatures aloft begin to change the precipitation to sleet and freezing rain.

The bottom line is that as the snow and sleet resume, we could catch another 1 to 3 inches on topSun Photo/Frank Roylance of the slop already on the ground. Add a coating of ice from any freezing rain we receive, and you get a pretty comprehensive sampling of everything wet that winter can throw at Maryland - except deep snow.

Here's the latest radar loop. And here's the official forecast.

And, here is an initial report on accumulations - up to 3 inches in parts of Charles and Calvert counties.

In the discussion out of Sterling this afternoon, forecasters continue to scratch their heads about what kind of precipitation we're likely to see, where we're likely to see it, when and for how long.

The problem seems to be high pressure over New England, which is preventing a layer of cold air over the mid-Atlantic states from drifting away and allowing warmer air to settle in.

Temperatures at The Sun's weather station at Calvert & Centre streets have been steady near 28 degrees all day. And it's this layer of cold air at the surface that keeps us in line for snow when the precip resumes. Once that cold layer erodes, or slips away, we start to see freezing rain, sleet and, eventually, all rain.

Here's a bit of what they're saying:

"LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE COLD AIR WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW AND
SLEET TUESDAY EVENING. EVEN ACROSS THESE AREAS...THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH WARM AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FOR FREEZING RAIN
TO MIX IN OVERNIGHT.

"LATEST GUIDANCE STILL DIVERGES ON HOW LONG THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOW MUCH ICE ACCUMULATION THERE IS FROM
FREEZING RAIN. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE COLDER SOLUTIONS ...

"HAVE ALLOWED FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM NEAR THE
CITIES OF WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE A GRADUAL TURN OVER TO RAIN ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN MAY HOLD ON ACROSS LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND NEAR
THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE KEPT THE HIGHEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS
AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITIES WITH UP
TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH IN THE CITIES WITH LESS SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CITIES."

Remember, freezing rain is what makes walks and handrails and roads invisibly icy, and may bring down tree limbs and power lines. So if the freezing rain comes, expect plenty of power outages overnight and into tomorrow morning. You can check on the status of BGE outages here.

Whatever happens, all of this mess should be clearing out late Wednesday, with a bit of snow as a farewell flourish. Thursday should be sunny, in the upper 30s. More light snow is possible late Friday, and Monday. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 2:33 PM | | Comments (1)
Categories: Forecasts
        

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"That storm is our last hope."
"No. There is another."

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About Frank Roylance
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page. Frank also answers readers’ weather queries for the newspaper and the blog. Frank Roylance retired in October 2011. Maryland Weather is now being updated by members of The Baltimore Sun staff
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