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December 12, 2008

....or not

Looks like the forecasters out at Sterling worried us needlessly with their fretting late yesterday over where and when the rain would give way to flurries, or snow showers, and whether as much as an inch of snow might slick up our morning rush.

It didn't. At least not in the metro areas.

We never sank below 39 degrees here at The Sun. And we haven't recorded any precipitation since shortly after midnight. And that's okay. We had plenty - all rain - yesterday. We clocked in 1.42 inches here at The Sun for the duration of the storm. BWI saw 1.59 inches.

Worcester County wins the prize for the most rain, with more than 4.6 inches at Berlin and Bishopville. Rivers and streams across the region are at or near record levels for the date. (That's Western Run in Ashland below.) Here are some more readings: Western Run at Ashland/Frank Roylance

Prince Frederick:  2.53 inches

Vienna:  2.25 inches

Salisbury:  2.22 inches

Frederick:  2.22 inches

Westminster:  2.09 inches

Bel Air:  2.01 inches

Columbia: 1.98 inches

Cockeysville: 1.87 inches

Towson:  1.78 inches

It's been a tough week for meteorologists. This storm produced snow in New Orleans, and Houston, but it couldn't sqeeze out a flake for Baltimore. Listen to them squirm in this morning's discussion from Sterling:

"THE CHALLENGES JUST KEEP COMING ... ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING INTO COOLER AIR AND CHANGING TO SNOW.

MAIN PROB IS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VA IS THE MAJOR SOURCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
MRNG...NOT A CHGOVR TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR PULLS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT. BECAUSE OF THE PRECIPITATION TRAJECTORY BELIEVE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION IN MONT/HOWARD/BALT COUNTIES WILL BE RAIN BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z [7 AND 11 EST].

"ANOTHER FACT TO CONSIDER IS THAT BOTH MD AND VA ROAD TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S.
FOR THIS YR WE HAVE IMPLEMENTED LOWER ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MAJOR
METRO ROUTES DURING RUSH HRS (1"). BUT EVEN W/ THAT AM UNSURE 1" IS
GOING TO BE REALIZED...CERTAINLY NOT ON ROADS AND I`M DOUBTING
EVEN ON GRASSY SURFACES. BECAUSE OF THIS I`M PULLING THE ADVISORY FOR
MONT AND HOWARD.

"MUCH OF BALTIMORE COUNTY TO BE LIQUID AS
WELL...BUT COULD SEE A CHG TO SNOW IN NORTHERN PART OF COUNTY SO THEY
STAY IN ADVSRY.

"FURTHER WEST THE 2" ADVSRY CRITERIA REMAINS. I WISH I COULD SAY MY
CONFIDENCE OF THAT WAS HIGH...BUT IT`S NOT. HOWEVER I DON`T FEEL
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO OVERTURN..AS COOLER AIR WILL BE ENTERING THE
AREA AND SOME SNOWFALL IS LIKELY. EVEN THERE, ROAD TEMPS ARE IN UPPER 30S
SO ACCUMULATION ON ROADS NOT EXPECTED...ONLY ON GRASS."

Straightforward enough for you?

The bottom line is we'll have to wait a while longer for our first real bout with Old Man Winter. The 7-day forecast calls for the clouds to clear out gradually today as the storm departs to the northeast and high pressure builds in for the weekend. 

The only sunshine in the forecast comes Saturday and Sunday, with temperatures warming  to near 60 degrees again by Monday as we come into the return flow around the high and winds swing back around to the south.

Then things get wet again as another cold front approaches from the west. Forecasters expect  steady rainfall across the region on Tuesday, cooling things back closer to seasonable 40s.

For snow lovers there is only bad news in the discussion: "No major storm systems highlighted on the horizon as zonal (west to east) flow sets up and these weak low pressure systems slide across the region at a fairly fast pace."

You could move to Boston.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:25 AM | | Comments (1)
Categories: Forecasts
        

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At least 17 daily rainfall records have been set through the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, including some all-time December records.

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About Frank Roylance
This site is the Maryland Weather archive. The current Maryland Weather blog can be found here.
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page. Frank also answers readers’ weather queries for the newspaper and the blog. Frank Roylance retired in October 2011. Maryland Weather is now being updated by members of The Baltimore Sun staff
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