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December 9, 2008

No sun 'til Saturday

NOAA 

That's the actual sun up in the sky we're talking about here. The newspaper-type Sun will publish all week, I'm told, and for the foreseeable future, despite the shenanigans in Chicago. But here in Baltimore, we're in for a long stretch of clouds and rain (all that blue in the radar map above) and maybe some snow thrown in to keep it wintry. No sunshine in sight until Saturday.

Not so wintry today or tomorrow, at least. The forecasters out in Sterling guessed yesterday's maxima four or five degrees too high. And they're confessing that the forecast ahead has "numeous brain busting aspects to it," among them the strength of this afternoon's winds, and the timing of the onset of the precipitation late today. "This is a day that could be fraught with bust potential," they said, meaning they may get it all wrong and "bust" the forecast. Again. Here's this morning's discussion from Sterling.

For now, they are expecting today's temperatures to reach 50 degrees, a couple of degrees above the long-term averages for BWI. And tonight's temperatures won't dip at all, stalling in the high 40s, which is the average HIGH for the airport at this time of year.

That's because of the strong southerly flow that's going to be hauling warm, wet air up from the South, feeding several days of rain that will likely top an inch or so before it's over. The rain could start after midnight tonight, continuing throughout the day Wednesday. Temperatures will reach the 60s, if the forecast holds up. That's 10 or 15 degrees above normal for the season.

Rain chances persist into Thursday, but the passage of a strong, gusty cold front Wednesday night will send thermometers back into the cooler. We'll be in the low 30s again by dawn Thursday, with stiff north winds. There may be more rain during the day Thursday. And as temperatures drop into the upper 20s Thursday night, some of that rain could change to snow and give us another dusting. That will depend on how a predicted coastal low develops early Friday, and whether it can draw enough cold air into the region. 

Blogger Henry Margusity, up at AccuWeather.com, is at the high end of speculation, as he usually is. He thinks we could get a couple of inches.

Any snow we do see will change back to rain Friday morning. Then skies should start to clear for the weekend. It will be seasonably cold again, with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:51 AM | | Comments (0)
Categories: Forecasts
        

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About Frank Roylance
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page.

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