Where have all the sunspots gone?
Solar scientists are marveling at how quiet the surface of the sun has been this year - 200 days (through 9/27) with no sunspots visible. They're saying it's the quietest year on the sun since the Space Age began. The quietest since 1954 to be precise. The image above shows the sun as it looked on Saturday. And we still have three months to go.
It's not exactly a surprise that the sun has been spotless this year. We are at the minimum point in the current 11-year solar activity cycle, and sunspots - with all the flares and prominances that come with the maximum periods of solar activity - are typically scarce during solar minimums.
What's unusual is how very, very quiet the sun has been. This year has seen the fewest sunspots since 1954, and the seventh-fewest in the last century, according to NASA. It's a boon to solar scientists, who get to study our nearest star without the usual tumult on its surface. At the time of solar maximum, like 2001, the sun looked like this:
What's really fascinating, though, is that this quiet sun coincides with the dimmest sun scientists have ever recorded, and a low in solar wind pressure. The lull in solar irradiance is only a tiny percentage below normal, but it is something to watch if our sun continues to dim. And the slowing of the solar wind actually began several years ago. But the confluence of changes has solar scientists on the run looking for links and explanations.
Who says there's nothing new under the sun? You can read more here.
Comments
So, there have been less sun spots in 7 out of the 9 solar cycles in the last century. So this means that theres nothing really unusual here and we need to wait and see.........
the sun is not really that well understood at this point either dont forget.
Posted by: john | October 1, 2008 2:21 AM
Great. soon someone on TeeVee will say that the lack of sunspots is the most INCREDIBLEUNHEARDOF thing EVER! And on and on until eventually we all hyperventilate running from one end of the world crisis to another.
Or, maybe they'll show restraint this time.
FR: Nah. Scientists are excited about it chiefly because it gives them more time to study the sun without a lot of turbulence on the surface, AND, at a time when they have more observatories on the ground and in space looking at the sun than ever before. If the solar quiet continues for a long time, like years, then it will become much more interesting. Google "Maunder Minimum," a period from 1645 to 1715 or thereabouts with few sunspots. It coincided with the "Little Ice Age" a prolonged period of cold weather in Europe and North America. THAT would be news.
Posted by: Lesley | October 1, 2008 2:54 PM
Actually 3 of the 7 years in the early 1900's that had less sun spots were part of the same solar cycle. The low sunspot year in 2007 is also part of solar cycle 23 which we are ending (maybe). It is quite interesting and yes only time will tell if there is any impact on climate. Certainly the last time there was an extended period of minimum sunspot activity (1645 to 1715), it coincided with a global drop in temperatures (the Maunder Minimum)
Posted by: Bruce | October 1, 2008 5:13 PM
They say the lack of sunspots is nothing unusual. They say this because they bet the farm that solar cycle 24 was going to be a huge one, and it is anything but. Solar cycle 23 is currently 12 years 5 months long and is likely to be 13 years long or longer.the average cycle is 10.7 years long. The last time there was a solar cycle 13 years long or longer was cycle 5 in 1798, it was 13.6 years long, and it led the world into a very cold period called the Dalton Minimum. Long solar cycle lengths have always led to cooling periods, and shorter cycles to warming periods. The cycles in the late 20th century were very short, thus the warming. 1998 was the warmest year and it has been cooling ever since. The world cooled .7 degrees in 2007, equal to the warming of the entire 20th century.
We are heading into a 30 year period of cooling. If you dont believe this go do some research on solar cycle relationship to temperature.
Posted by: geoff pohanka | October 1, 2008 6:37 PM
This is an excellent article on the relationship between solar cycles and global temperatures.
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/solarcyclestory.pdf
FR: Fascinating. Thanks.
Posted by: Geoff | October 2, 2008 11:23 AM
Predicted in December 2006
http://sesfoundation.org/dalton_minimum.pdf
Now validated in October 2008
http://solarscience.auditblogs.com/2008/10/06/the-sun-is-in-a-deep-minimum/
Predicted by Farmers Almanac:
Farmers’ Almanac long-range weather forecasts are calculated by Caleb Weatherbee (MIT/ NASA Scientist) who uses a proprietary formula developed by Farmers' Almanac founder David Young. This formula considers many factors, such as sunspots, moon phases, and other astronomical and atmospheric factors and conditions. Since 1818, this carefully guarded formula has been passed along from calculator to calculator and has never been revealed.
Unlike your local news, government, or commercial weather service, our forecasts are calculated several years in advance. Once the new year’s Farmers’ Almanac is printed, we can not go back to change or update our forecasts as many other local sources do.
I hope that weather men can draw more attention to the sun now that many world agencies are now concerned about global cooling.
Who knows what is right? But, we need all the facts.
Posted by: Rx | October 26, 2008 8:44 PM