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September 4, 2008

Tropical Storm Watch issued for Maryland

Parts of Maryland is now under a Tropical Storm Watch as TS Hanna continues its advance on the U.S. mainland. A new track forecast brings the storm up the coast, with the center line of the "cone of uncertainty" passing directly over Ocean City. Here's how it reads:


Central Maryland is also under a Flash Flood Watch for Saturday, with 3 to 6 inches of rain possible along the storm's path.

The good news? Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center this afternoon are saying that it is increasingly unlikely that Tropical Storm Hanna will strengthen to hurricane status before making landfall tomorrow. On the other hand, the old girl is not likely to weaken either, and "PEOPLE ARE REMINDED THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND A MINIMAL HURRICANE," they said.

More precisely, Hanna was blowing with top sustained winds of 65 mph at last check. Hurricane force winds begin at 74 mph. Either one will knock you down, take out trees and utility lines and make a general mess of the place.

Tropical Storm Warnings are posted now all the way to the North Carolina/Virginia border. A Hurricane Watch extends to Currituck Beach Light in the Outer Banks, including Pamlico Sound.

The other news out of the Hurricane Center this afternoon was a slight twitch to the west in Hanna's forecast track. She could twitch again, of course. But if this latest track change holds up, the storm's center will run right up the coast - NOT offshore - passing directly over Ocean City. That would mean stiffer winds for the resort, for the Eastern Shore, and quite possibly for Baltimore. A bigger twitch to the left could send the center of the storm west of the Chesapeakem setting us up for some significant bay flooding.

Here's the latest advisory. Here's the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

The other concern, of course, is that Hurricane Ike is right behind Hanna, a few days east in the Atlantic. No assurances yet where he will go, but with top winds at 135 mph (down a tad from earlier today, but still extremely dangerous) we have to keep a close watch on that storm, too.

Here's the latest advisory for Ike. Here's the track map, and here's the view from space. That's one good-looking hurricane.

And here is the wind forecast map. It shows a 60 percent chance of tropical storm winds on the Eastern Shore. You can see Ike right on Hanna's heels. Josephine is about to enter at the right of the picture. But she seems to be falling apart.



Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:06 PM | | Comments (3)
Categories: Hurricanes


Two points.

1) Hanna/s wind field is large such that 'tropical storm' force wind speeds will be observed far afield from the center of circulation.

2) Wind speed associated with 'severe wx' from convection is 50 kts (58 mph). Hanna/s sustained wind speed is higher.

Best not to be lulled into a false sense of security b/c the TS symbol appears far away.,21328260,3194_21169354:3194_21266281:3194_21266297&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL

Any idea about the doubleheader at Camden Yards tomorrow (Saturday)? Do we think there might be one rainout or two or is it still in flux?

FR: I'd bet on a washout. They're calling for a 100 percent chance of heavy rain during the day, and a 40 percent chance of more rain at night through 2 a.m. Here's the forecast. You be the judge:

I like the site and the map and the different estimates of where the storm will go, depending on its speed. The map does need to be larger. Coming from a small state, Maryland, I could barely see us and certainly no see the different percentages of rain estimates.

FR: If it's posted as a link, you can usually click on those NHC track maps and they will get bigger. It helps a little with a state like Maryland.

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About Frank Roylance
This site is the Maryland Weather archive. The current Maryland Weather blog can be found here.
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page. Frank also answers readers’ weather queries for the newspaper and the blog. Frank Roylance retired in October 2011. Maryland Weather is now being updated by members of The Baltimore Sun staff

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