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September 3, 2008

Ike now a Cat. 3 hurricane; Josephine weakens

The National Hurricane Center this afternoon upgraded Tropical Storm Ike to hurricane status. Farther west, Hanna was regrouping and turning for the Carolinas. And to the east in the Atlantic, meanwhile, Tropical Storm Josephine was losing strength.

UPDATE: 8:45 P.M. Ike has been upgraded again this evening. It is now a Category 3 storm with top sustained winds of 115 mph. Earlier post resumes below.

Ike is now the fifth hurricane of the 2008 Atlantic season. It was 670 miles east northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, moving toward the west-northwest at 18 mph with top sustained winds of about 80 mph. Forecasters said:

"THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...TAKING IKE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  IT IS TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE WHAT IF ANY LAND AREAS MIGHT EVENTUALLY BE
AFFECTED BY IKE."

Here is the latest advisory on Ike. Here is the forecast storm track, which would seem to carry the storm into the Bahamas by Sunday morning. And here is the view from orbit.

Farther east, Josephine was wheezing a bit, and may not survive. Here's the forecasters' assessment:

"STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR HAVE REALLY WORKED A NUMBER ON
JOSEPHINE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  AFTER LOOKING RATHER
IMPRESSIVE EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS
SINCE RAPIDLY DEGRADED.  CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND THERE IS NOW A
NOTICEABLE LACK OF ORGANIZATION." Read more here.

Here is the latest advisory on Josephine. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is how she looks from orbit. Pitiful.

In the meantime, Hanna, our most immediate threat, seemed to be getting better organized, and the air pressure at her center was falling - a sign of intensification. You can read more here. Hanna is moving north at 12 mph, and was expected to accelerate. Top sustained winds remain at about 60 mph, but she is still expected to become a hurricane (73 mph) as soon as tomorrow.

Here is the latest advisory. And here is the view from orbit. She looks rather lopsided, but must still be taken seriously. Here's the storm track: 

NOAA

 

Here's the latest discussion of Hanna from the folks at WeatherBug:

"The uncertainty with the track forecast remains high.  In order for Hanna to continue to move northwest, the ocean storm that has been parked near Nova Scotia for more than a week needs to retreat northward very rapidly, allowing ridging to develop where Hanna is headed.  The longer the delay, the more likely a westward track towards Melbourne or Jacksonville, Fla., becomes.  The NOGAPS (NGPS) model is the one closest to this particular scenario.  All of the other model forecasts take Hanna further north or east, mainly into the Carolinas on Saturday morning.

"The intensity forecast is a bit more certain.  Deep warm water is available just east of the Bahamas up toward the Carolina coast, which will be favorable for strengthening to a hurricane.  Due to the influence of the ocean storm, this increase in intensity likely will hold off until Friday.  It is unlikely that Hanna will intensify beyond Category 1 strength.  However, if the ocean storm can move off to the northeast quickly, Hanna does have an outside shot at reaching Category 2 strength before making landfall."

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:16 PM | | Comments (9)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Comments

POOR PEOPLE! i feel bad for them. i hate hurricanes. they destroy everything!.. i wonder what the people there are going to do.

omg why does it got to be that bad every year we get a hurricane here it destroys everything.....yea i hate them to....

Zoning and building codes need to be made suitable for areas that repeatedly get hit. It's ridiculous that insurance pays for structues to be rebuilt in at-risk areas. Rather, why not use the money to buy people out and help them relocate to less risky locations, especially considering the prediction of rising ocean levels anyway. And for those who choose to rebuild in endangered areas, let them assume the risk, maybe they'll choose to build structures designed to withstand the inevitable storms.

FR: Precisely the recommendations of the governor's Commission on Climate Change. http://www.mde.state.md.us/Air/climatechange/index.asp

!! I live in Connecticut and we just got Hanna now we're getting Ike then Josephine!

I need to know where Josephine si for science class. and should PA residents keep an eye on her?

FR: No need to worry about Josephine. That storm has dissipated in the Atlantic.http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/060901.shtml

People here in NC are thankful of all the thoughts and prayers. We definately dodged a bullet this time. Residents here are used to this time of year but it never gets any easier. God bless all those looking toward Ike and dealing with the aftermath of Gustav.

come on i need to know more about Josephine because it is due on monday for homework!!!!

FR: Gigi: Josephine does not exist anymore. The storm dissipated this morning in the Atlantic: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

I am no expert but I do like physics.. I came up with a therory as to why the hurricanes might be happening worse in election years. I think it is do to all the clapping and hot air being sent out. kinda like the butterfly effect.. Anyone else feel this way??

i was in cuba when ike stroke in a resort called guardalavaca causing distruction and flying debris.

It was a terrifing experinience and felt more a cat 4 than 3 and stroke quicker that inticipated and took a lot of this region. All the hotels are ruined. Glad to be back in scotland

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About Frank Roylance
This site is the Maryland Weather archive. The current Maryland Weather blog can be found here.
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page. Frank also answers readers’ weather queries for the newspaper and the blog. Frank Roylance retired in October 2011. Maryland Weather is now being updated by members of The Baltimore Sun staff
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