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Trop. Storm Warning Issued; Hanna toting 4 to 7 inches of rain

NOAA

UPDATE 11:50 A.M.: The Tropical Storm Watch issued for Maryland has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning. That means tropical storm conditions are now expected here within 24 hours. The warning includes all of the Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac and the Eastern Shore. An earlier post continues below.  

Sure, we'll get some bluster out of Hanna when she arrives tomorrow. Some limbs and maybe some weakened trees will topple, and power will go out for many of us. But I suspect it will be the rain that we remember once Hanna departs.

Central Maryland from Harford County south to St. Mary's and the Eastern Shore are all under a Tropical Storm Watch through Saturday. We should expect sustained winds tomorrow of 25 to 35 mph, with gusts to 50 mph throughout the day. The strongest winds are likely east of the I-95 corridor. Clouds in the outermost bands of Hanna are already approaching the Chesapeake. Here's a satellite phone shot at 11 a.m.

Flash Flood Watches are up throughout the region, too. Forecasters say we can expect 4 to 7 inches of rain before the storm is over, with localized accumulations of 10 inches. The rain could start as early as tonight. Although the low streamflow we're seeing now should leave plenty of room for the rivers and creeks to rise, there is still a danger of small-stream flooding into low-lying roads if rainfalls exceed 3 to 4 inches over three hours.

Storm surge flooding is also a danger tomorrow. Forecasters are warning that tides will run 2 to 4 feet above normal levels on the western shore of the Chesapeake and the tidal Potomac. Highest water levels should occur around the time of high tide tomorrow. - between 10 a.m. and 12 noon in the Baltimore and Annapolis areas, and between 1 p.m. and 2 p.m. in the Washington area.

Here is the latest advisory on Hanna. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is how she looks from space. Here is AccuWeather.com's thinking on this storm and the next - Ike.

Out in Ocean City and the Eastern Shore, winds will run between 39 and 44 mph, with gusts to 60 mph during the day. Hanna will drop 4 to 6 inches of rain out there, if the forecast holds up. Coastal storm surge flooding will run 3 to 5 feet above normal levels.

NOAA

So where is Hanna this morning? The National Hurricane Center puts Hanna's center about 400 miles south of Wilmington, N.C. She is moving to the northwest at about 18 mph. The forecast track has the storm accelerating later today toward the South Carolina/North Carolina border. Maximum sustained winds remain at about 65 mph, still below hurricane strength. There is some chance it could intensify between now and landfall, but forecasters didn't seem to think that was likely.

From there, the forecast track takes the storm across Delmarva and up the coast to southeastern New England.

The most important thing to remember about Hanna is that she is one big storm - big, as in broad. Tropical Storm-force winds extend more than 300 miles from the center. So, even if the center passes offshore from Maryland, it will still be one very wet and windy day.

Remember, 3 or 4 inches of rain in one day is the equivalent of a normal month's rain for us in 24 hours. If your roof leaks, or your basement gets damp in a good rain, you will be sopping up water tomorrow. And don't count on the shop-vac. You may well lose power at the height of the storm, when you need it most.

Forecasters are advising Marylanders to listen to NOAA Weather Radio. (If you don't have one, go buy one today. They're not expensive and they're great when the weather turns nasty and the power goes out.)

Otherwise, follow the forecasts on radio and TV (and here).  Fill your gas tank; check on batteries for flashlights and radios; gather up some canned food, drinking water and first aid supplies. And secure anything in your yard that might blow around. It would be a good idea to make sure the storm drains around your house are cleared of debris, too. There will be a lot of water running down the streets and backyard swales.

Then there's Ike. The next storm in line for a possible encounter with the U.S. mainland is still well out in the Atlantic. But Ike is a Cat. 3 storm. It's weakened some from its former Cat. 4 status. But it is an increasing threat to the Bahamas and the Southeastern U.S. The storm track remains uncertain. But the power of this storm has everyone watching it very closely.

Here is the latest advisory on Ike. Here is the forcast storm track, which seems to threaten South Florida most, but could carry it up the East Coast, or into the Gulf. And here is how he looks from space - a bit lopsided as he struggles with shear on his north side. But forecasters say there is lighter wind shear and warmer water ahead for Ike. He is expected to regain some intensity down the road, and remain a very dangerous storm.

Comments

Thanks for the tips, Frank. I was going to head out to the NASCAR race in Richmond, but alas, doesn't look like the weather will hold up. In addition to preparing the usual essentials for the storm, I also grabbed some chlorine tablets in case the water supply is compromised in some way. I've done some work with the ACC, and have found it's pretty crucial to have the tablets at the ready...just in case. Appreciate the info!

I have a bolted down gazebo on my deck, do I need to take it down completely?

Thanks

FR: Even if I were an engineer, which I'm not, it would be hard to say without seeing the gazebo, how well you have secured it, and how exposed it is. I would err on the side of caution, though. You don't want anything like that going airborne and flying into your windows, your car, or the neighbors'.

Hi Frank,

I am an engineer. I would suggest that the gazebo be filled with cases of Chlorine tablets to ensure it doesn't blow away.

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About Frank Roylance
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page.
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