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September 3, 2008

Hanna pauses before heading our way

NOAA

Tropical storm Hanna continues to sit and spin north of Hispaniola, with top sustained winds still below minimal hurricane strength. But forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say she is poised to begin her long-forecast run north and west toward the U.S. mainland.

In the meantime, storm trackers continue to follow tropical storms Ike and Josephine - still far out in the Atlantic.

As for Hanna, as odd as her meanderings near the Bahamas have been since last week, forecasters - and their computer models - seem to remain steadfast in their belief that she will turn sometime today and make a beeline for the coast of South Carolina, or thereabouts. Depending on just when she decides to get moving, we can expect to feel some effects on Friday or Saturday.

Here's a bit of this morning's discussion from the hurricane center:

"THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST REASONINGS.
HANNA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
...POSSIBLY IN THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT
THE 00Z MODEL RUNS CONTAINED UPPER-AIR DATA FROM DROPSONDES
RELEASED AROUND HANNA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET AIRCRAFT...
WHICH USUALLY PRODUCES BETTER TRACK FORECASTS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC
MODEL CONSENSUS.

"THE INTENSITY FORECAST BASICALLY REMAINS UNCHANGED AND FOLLOWS THE
SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...WITH HANNA EXPECTED TO REGAIN HURRICANE
STATUS BY 36 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS"

The current forecast for Maryland doesn't call for much that should get anyone too worried. An inch or two of rain and some breezes are about all they're calling for at the moment. There's a lot of land between Myrtle Beach and Baltimore, and plenty of time to calm a storm that seems unlikely to gather too much power between her present location and the Carolina beaches. And the track seems to have Hanna speeding through here very quickly. So there should be no long, lingering rains. There is always room for surprises, however. So stay in touch with the forecast.

So here's the latest advisory on Hanna. The storm track forecast is above. It appears to have shifted to the east a bit, taking the center east of the bay. That would seem to reduce the danger of storm surge flooding along the bay, if it holds. And here's how she looks from space. Kind of a mess this morning, I'm afraid.

Next up is Ike. Here's the latest advisory. Ike is expected to become a hurricane sometime today. Top sustained winds are now around 65 mph. Here's the storm track, which takes it into the Bahamas by Sunday. Those folks are having a bad time.  And here's how he looks from orbit. A fine-looking storm.

And here is Josephine, with top winds around 60 mph, but still far off: the latest advisory. the storm track, which seems likely to keep this storm at sea.  And the view from space. That's Josephine just entering the right side of the Atlantic-wide image.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 7:32 AM | | Comments (3)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Comments

How about these 90 degree days here? What's up with that?

I think I lost about 10 pounds in sweat on Saturday at the MD football game...

Go away HANNA!

We need a war on hurricanes,
Brian Sandler brian334@peoplepc.com

I recently received a patent on a machine designed to destroy hurricanes.
At my website http://bsandler.com there is a complete description of the machine.
Please contact me at the above address if you have any questions.
Thanks,
Brian Sandler

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About Frank Roylance
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page.

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