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September 1, 2008

Hanna now a hurricane; Ike is tropical storm; more to come

NOAA

Gustav is barely ashore - and still at hurricane strength  as I write this - and to the east more trouble is brewing. Hanna finally reached hurricane strength this afternoon, and about midway between us and Africa, the ninth tropical storm of the season was born and immediately named Ike.

You may need a scorecard this week, as the remnants of Gustav continue to batter the country's midsection; Hanna begins to threaten the Southeast, and us by the weekend; Ike enters the picture from the Atlantic, and yet another storm brews off the coast of Africa and begins the long trek across the pond. Maybe the map above will help get you oriented. 

Here's the rundown on Gustav. First is the latest advisory, showing Gus to be a minimal Cat. 1 storm this evening. Here's the forecast storm track, which looks take it on a long, slow curve back toward the Mississippi valley by week's end, leaving plenty of rain and flooding for Texas, Arkansas and Oklahoma. And here's the view  from space.

Next is Hanna, which is nearly motionless east of the Bahamas. But she is expected to get a move on later this week, and could come ashore in Georgia or South Carolina by week's end. Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track, which could become interesting for us by the weekend. And here is the view from orbit.

Finally, here's Ike. The latest advisory; the storm track (aimed at the Bahamas for now), and the view from space.

If the newbie off Africa gets rolling, it will become Tropical Storm Josephine. Here's what the forecasters have to say about her:

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT YET ACQUIRED A
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER.  HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

Here's our forecast for next weekend. Pretty wet. And here's how the forecast discussion from Sterling deals with it:

THE FORECAST BECOMES RAPIDLY UNCERTAIN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HURRICANE HANNA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
SOMEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST AND TRAVEL NORTH ALONG THE
EDGE OF AN ATLANTIC RIDGE...WHICH AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE
SOMEWHERE ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS ... CHANGES IN THE FORECAST SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

AT MINIMUM...HANNA WILL BRING RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
SOMETIME FRIDAY AND LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
THE WIND FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AND COMPLETELY DEPENDENT
ON THE TRACK...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF HANNA.  

Posted by Frank Roylance at 9:37 PM | | Comments (8)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Comments

So I was watching the hapless weatherman talk about the next system approaching on the east coast - Hannah. He began by saying he knew that area hadn't taken a hit since - well, a long time. I also wondered. I knew only vaguely. Search engines are amazing things ... you can find all sorts of helpful and sometimes not so helpful information. It turns out that there is a site that answered the question I wanted to know: "just how many times has the georgia east coast been hit - or Savannah?" Rather than drilling into every year in a long data base I found instead:
http://www.hurricanecity.com/city/savannah.htm

A cat 4 has hit that coastline ... and it appears prone to surges. The answer? According to this site - 9 or 10 depending on whether you consider Hugo (which actually got Charleston)

FR: Here's another handy reference tool for looking back at landfalls along the east coast: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/hurr-uslandfalling-1950-2007.jpg

Very nice blog. All in one place. All timely. Thanks,

Wayne

Well,

Looks like we may get a nice bout of rain and looks like the southeast gets it also where its still badly needed.

Not so bad as long as these things stay spinning at the lower end of the scale.

3 in a row.

great stuff, but I fear the usual American faux pas. The Bahamas do exist guys, they are close to your shores,on your door step. These people are your neighbours and they regularly "cop it" in a very big way... and yet minimal coverage in your American press. I was there for "Andrew", it wiped out Harbour Island (an American favorite), there was almost no mention of the catastrophe that had hit them before Miami, in fact many Americans seemed unaware that The Bahamas were there at all.

FR: You're right, of course. I think the reason the Bahamas get short shrift in hurricane reports is their very proximity to our shores. News of danger and damage to U.S. territory will always trump that from the islands. If the Bahamas are getting hammered, or are in peril, so is Florida, and Florida will always get more ink from the U.S. press. It may not be just, but it's a reality of the news business.

good site, very interesting getting to know what`s going on over there
S.Riley England

as most people know september 10th is the peck of hurricane season. I am a 12 year old but i think a larger one will come. i think it will be worse than katrena it may sound far feach but i'd GET OUT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I am a survivor of Tropical Storm Gustav.
The rains poured heavily on my roof top when it hit Jamaica last week Thursday. Those heavy showers and a little flash of lightening and Thunder was what suite us Jamaicans.
Flooding made certain roads in Jamaica impassable for motorists, cyclists and pedestrians.
It was more than 26 inches of rain Jamaica got from Tropical Storm Gustav.
Now I am concerned about Ike. What if Tropical Storm Ike make an impact on Jamaica?

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About Frank Roylance
This site is the Maryland Weather archive. The current Maryland Weather blog can be found here.
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page. Frank also answers readers’ weather queries for the newspaper and the blog. Frank Roylance retired in October 2011. Maryland Weather is now being updated by members of The Baltimore Sun staff
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