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September 24, 2008

Coastal storm brings wind, rain Thursday PM

NOAA water vapor loop

Get outside today and enjoy the warm, sunny, early-autumn weather, because it's all downhill from here. The radar loop shows a strong coastal low developing a couple of hundred miles off the Carolina coast. This system has top sustained winds of 65 mph and is developing more tropical characteristics, But it is not likely to become a tropical storm. 

(This is NOT the storm that was developing in the northeast Caribbean last week - the one we thought might become TS Kyle. That disturbance is still down there, still having trouble getting its act together.) 

Forecasters watching the coastal storm say they expect it to move toward shore today and tomorrow. The low's counterclockwise rotation, combined with the clockwise rotation of the high-pressure system over New England that's brought us this gorgeous weather, will begin increasing our winds out of the northeast today. The Sun's weather station is already showing the wind speeds rising. The barometer is still quite high. When it starts dropping, you'll know the wetter weather is en route. 

Here's AccuWeather.com's take on the storm

Next will come high cirrus clouds later today and tonight. You can actually see the edge of those clouds to our south today. They will evolve into cloudier conditions by morning with rain beginning in the afternoon. Forecasters  say we could expect as much as 2 inches of rain before the whole system departs on Friday.

The northeast winds will shove Chesapeake Bay water toward the western shore. A Coastal Flood Watch has been posted for Anne Arundel, Calvert and St. Mary's counties for late tonight and Thursday. It warns of high tides 1 to 3 feet above normal predictions and "minor to moderate coastal flooding."

A Hazardous Weather Outlook message has been posted for the entire western shore and the tidal Potomac River tonight and Thursday. It notes gale warnings off the ocean beaches, in the middle section of the Chesapeake and tidal Potomac River. Gale warnings mean winds of 39 to 54 mph are expected within 24 hours.

Here's the windy Ocean City forecast. The winds come with a High Surf Advisory and a high risk of dangerous rip currents. So don't fool with the surf for the next few days.

Some sunshine should return by Sunday. Sunny skies, with highs in the mid-70s, will return in time for the new work week. For now, watch that barometer.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:24 AM | | Comments (2)
Categories: Forecasts
        

Comments

Why is this different from a tropical storm? Is it the cyclonic nature of the clouds that's missing? Or does it have to do with pressures?

Thanks!

FR: It's not the low pressure, or the cyclonic winds, which this one shares with tropical storms. Chris Strong, out in Sterling, explained that it has more to do with the structure at the center. Tropical storms have warm air at their core. This one is cold. These storms also have a much broader expanse of high winds, whereas tropical storms concentrate their highest winds near the core. It also lacks the deep convection - the strong thunderstorms and towering clouds - typical of tropical systems. It's just a strong coastal storm.

This one also lacks the symmetry of a tropical system. There is some fairly deep convection, but it's well north and east of the center.

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About Frank Roylance
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page.

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