Action in the North Atlantic
Now that Kyle has gone ashore in Nova Scotia and the Maritime Provinces of Canada, the National Hurricane Center has turned its attention to Laura, a new sub-tropical storm that has formed overnight in the North Atlantic (Upper right on this image). It's spinning almost due east of Ocean City but far out on the Atlantic, south-southeast of Newfoundland. Top sustained winds are blowing at 60 mph.
For now, Laura remains a sub-tropical storm, but forecasters see signs that she could develop into a true tropical storm:
"A PRONOUNCED CONVECTIVE BAND
NOW CURLS ABOUT THREE QUARTERS OF THE WAY AROUND THE EAST AND NORTH
OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS BROAD AND
ILL-DEFINED WITH SEVERAL INTERNAL SMALLER SWIRLS. WITH THE
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE...A CASE COULD BE MADE THAT THE
CYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO ACQUIRE MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS."
Laura will not become a direct threat to North America, but shipping will be grappling with a bad storm. The storm track makes it appear that Ireland and the British Isles will be dealing with Laura in a few days.
Here is the latest advisory on Laura. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.
Comments
Hey Frank,
Just a general question regarding Hurricane Forecasting 2008. It seems this year, the forecasts for the most part have been extraordinarily accurate. Do you agree? If so, what is the cause? Better technology/models? Luck??
FR: Probably all of the above. Satellite imagery and remote sensing; radar; data buoys have all been improving. Computer modeling is constantly improving, although the models still often disagree, forcing forecasters to average the results, or use their judgment to pick the winner. They have been getting significantly better in their track forecasts and landfall predictions over the years, but have less skill in forecasting a storm's intensity. When a forecast goes bad, it's easy to scoff. But meteorology is an extraordinarily complex science with far more variables than can ever be accounted for in the models and forecasts. There is still a lot of art and experience involved. So forecasters can still go astray. Luck does play a role, but the folks in Miami do seem to have done very well this season.
Posted by: Jeff C | September 30, 2008 3:11 PM
The cooling trend is so strong that recently the head of the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change had to acknowledge it. He speculated that nature has temporarily overwhelmed mankind’s warming and it may be ten years or so before the warming returns. Oh, really. We are supposed to be in a panic about man-made global warming and the whole thing takes a ten year break because of the lack of Sun spots. If this weren’t so serious, it would be laughable.
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teff john
Posted by: Teff john | October 29, 2008 11:27 AM