A strong and very stubborn high-pressure center over New England is holding the rains from the remnants of Tropical Storm Fay to our south and west. Forecasters say that badly needed rain will have difficulty pushing north and east to give us the soaking we want.

You can see the problem very clearly in this satellite image (above). That bubble of clear air to our north and east is the high. The puffy white blob to our southwest is what's left of Fay. Nice and juicy, but just out of reach.

There is plenty of action to our south, though. The storm's remains are giving them lots to worry about in North Carolina.

But we get these nice sunny skies, and highs in the very unfamiliar 70s. And the nearest rain stays down in the Shenandoah Valley. The forecast gives us here in Baltimore our best shot at showers and thunderstorms tonight, with a 60 percent chance for a few drops. Those chances fade from Tursday (50 percent) through Saturday (30 percent).

That may sound encouraging. But the morning discussion out of Sterling is less so. The consensus of the models seemed to be leaning toward a more northerly track for the core of Fay's moisture, they said, "with much of the heaviest precipitation spreading across the higher terrain and while only scattered activity lingering intermittently over the east of the Blue Ridge to the coast."

Okay, so it's not very grammatical. You get their drift.

If there's hope, it's this for Friday and Saturday: "A few brief thunderstorms may develop closer to the more unstable region near the bay on Friday afternoon, with much lesser chances across the VA/MD Piedmont."

Then the next cold front passes by, clearing and drying the air for Labor Day and the first part of the new week.

Headed for the beach? Sunday and Monday look like your best days. The Kite Loft web cam at OC is down, but here's a view of Rehoboth. Looks fine from here today.