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August 28, 2008

Gustav gathering strength, will enter Gulf

NOAA

Residents of the United States' Gulf Coast were keeping a wary eye on Tropical Storm Gustav today as the storm began to restrengthen in the Caribbean after battering itself against the mountains of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Authorities were already considering an evacuation from New Orleans. Here's more on accelerating storm preparations in Louisiana.

Meantime, a second storm was brewing in the Atlantic, with the potential to affect the East Coast next week. More on that one below.

Forecasters are still aiming their primary forecast track for Gustav straight into the Gulf by this weekend, with the center of the cone of uncertainty drawing a bead on Louisiana.

Here is the latest advisory. Here is the view from space. The forecast track is above.

Gustav was centered this morning about 170 miles south of Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. It was moving to the very slowly toward the west-southwest, gathering strength in some of the warmest waters in the Atlantic Basin. That warm water - well over 80 degrees Fahrenheit - is where these storms draw their power.

The forecast called for the storm to turn toward the west later today, passing very close to Jamaica, where the government has issued a hurricane warning. By tomorrow Gustav is forecast to turn more toward the west-northwest, moving into the Gulf and approaching the Louisiana coast.

For now, top sustained winds were running near 70 mph, just under hurricane force. Gustav was expected to regain its hurricane status later today, and forecast models predict it will reach Cat. 2 or 3 by the time it enters the Gulf over the weekend.

And that, of course, is a huge worry for residents of the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas, none of whom needs to grapple with a landfall by another big storm. Judging from the comments below this Times-Picayune story, many are already plotting their escape.

Already, this storm is forecast to drop 6 to 12 inches of rain over Haiti, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands before it moves off. Isolated totals of two feet are possible, making dangerous mudslides and flash floods a real threat. Haiti and the Dominican Republic have already reported at least 22 dead.

Storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tides is likely where the storm's winds are blowing onshore. And this is still a tropical storm.

Almost unnoticed this morning is the formation of the next storm, dubbed for now Tropical Depression No. 8.  It's located about 300 nautical miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.

UPDATE: 12:30 p.m.: TD 8 has been upgraded to a tropical storm. It's Hanna now. Earlier post resumes:

This one is forecast to track west-northwest, across the Bermuda Triangle. It could become a threat to the East Coast  next week.  Maximum sustained winds were about 35 mph, just below tropical storm strength.  It was expected to become a tropical storm later today or tomorrow. If so, it will be named Hanna.

Welcome to the party, Hanna! Here's how the wind forecasts for the two storms look. Yikes!

NOAA

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:02 AM | | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

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About Frank Roylance
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page.

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