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August 21, 2008

Fay rains here by Thursday?

NHC

Tropical Storm Fay is moving so slowly, it's not easy to figure out where her rains will be three days from now, let alone a week. The "cone of uncertainty" in the map above indicates the storm's center could be anywhere from the northern Gulf of Mexico to central Mississippi by Sunday.

But forecasters dealing with the extended forecast have been consulting their computer models and making some guesses. And there seems to be at least a possibility that we'll get some rain out of the storm's remnants (if there is any left) as early as next Thursday. That would happen after the wet weather crawls up the Mississippi and Ohio river valleys, and drifts north eastward to our forecast area.

The best solution would be to turn the rain back toward western portions of the Carolinas and North Georgia, where they desperately need it. Here's some speculation from Frank Strait, an AccuWeather.com blogger.

Here's a snippet from today's long-range discussion from Sterling:

"MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND TROPICAL STORM FAY.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE OFFICIAL TRACK GUIDANCE FROM TPC
ADVISORY NUMBER 24 FROM 11 AM TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE
CENTER SOMEWHERE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION BY 8
AM TUESDAY...WITH THE DETERMINISTIC FORECAST CENTER IN SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

"FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD...HAVE CHOSEN TO FOLLOW THE EUROPEAN DEPICTION
FROM THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS...WITH REMNANTS OF FAY ADVANCING
NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ARRIVAL OF DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE
SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY THURSDAY."

Why am I writing about Fay and what she may or may not be doing a week from now? Have you been outside? It's like Honolulu out there. Actually, it's way better than Honolulu! It's perfect. What's to write about?

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:21 PM | | Comments (2)
Categories: Forecasts
        

Comments

My lawn would appreciate the moisture... the sunniest areas are dry. But I have to agree on the perfection of our weather lately. Not to hot, not too cold, not too humid. What a great end to summer (as the school systems define it, anyway).

Hi Frank,
I visit this blog occasionally, but am a regular poster over at D@L. I'm a geography major and took a bunch of classes on climatology. A lifelong Baltimorean, my company relocated me here to Panama City about 2 years ago. So I am right in the path of Fay, if you all would like to get some reports of what its like. Right now, at 5pm local (Central) time, its cloudy, a bit breezy but surprisingly dry. We've had some drizzles, but that is about it so far.

FR: Sure. Send us all the reports you like. Good luck!

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About Frank Roylance
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page.

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