« Fla. flight delay: Catfish on runway | Main | Stuck on perfect »

Fay rains here by Thursday?

NHC

Tropical Storm Fay is moving so slowly, it's not easy to figure out where her rains will be three days from now, let alone a week. The "cone of uncertainty" in the map above indicates the storm's center could be anywhere from the northern Gulf of Mexico to central Mississippi by Sunday.

But forecasters dealing with the extended forecast have been consulting their computer models and making some guesses. And there seems to be at least a possibility that we'll get some rain out of the storm's remnants (if there is any left) as early as next Thursday. That would happen after the wet weather crawls up the Mississippi and Ohio river valleys, and drifts north eastward to our forecast area.

The best solution would be to turn the rain back toward western portions of the Carolinas and North Georgia, where they desperately need it. Here's some speculation from Frank Strait, an AccuWeather.com blogger.

Here's a snippet from today's long-range discussion from Sterling:

"MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND TROPICAL STORM FAY.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE OFFICIAL TRACK GUIDANCE FROM TPC
ADVISORY NUMBER 24 FROM 11 AM TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE
CENTER SOMEWHERE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION BY 8
AM TUESDAY...WITH THE DETERMINISTIC FORECAST CENTER IN SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

"FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD...HAVE CHOSEN TO FOLLOW THE EUROPEAN DEPICTION
FROM THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS...WITH REMNANTS OF FAY ADVANCING
NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ARRIVAL OF DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE
SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY THURSDAY."

Why am I writing about Fay and what she may or may not be doing a week from now? Have you been outside? It's like Honolulu out there. Actually, it's way better than Honolulu! It's perfect. What's to write about?

Comments

My lawn would appreciate the moisture... the sunniest areas are dry. But I have to agree on the perfection of our weather lately. Not to hot, not too cold, not too humid. What a great end to summer (as the school systems define it, anyway).

Hi Frank,
I visit this blog occasionally, but am a regular poster over at D@L. I'm a geography major and took a bunch of classes on climatology. A lifelong Baltimorean, my company relocated me here to Panama City about 2 years ago. So I am right in the path of Fay, if you all would like to get some reports of what its like. Right now, at 5pm local (Central) time, its cloudy, a bit breezy but surprisingly dry. We've had some drizzles, but that is about it so far.

FR: Sure. Send us all the reports you like. Good luck!

Post a comment

(If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.)

Please enter the letter "x" in the field below:
About Frank Roylance
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page.
Maryland Weather Center
WJZ Weather Forecast
Weather forecast
Watch the most recent Baltimore-area weather forecast from WJZ.
Most Recent Comments
-- ADVERTISEMENT --

Resources and Sun coverage
• Weather news

• Readers' photos

• Data from the The Sun's weather station

• 2008 stargazers' calendar

• Become a backyard astronomer in five simple steps

• Baltimore Weather Archive
Daily airport weather data for Baltimore from 1948 to today

• National Weather Service:
Sterling Forecast Office

• Capital Weather Gang:
Washington Post weather blog

• CoCoRaHS:
Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network. Local observations by volunteers

• Weather Bug:
Webcams across the state

• National Data Bouy Center:
Weather and ocean data from bay and ocean bouys

• U.S. Drought Monitor:
Weekly maps of drought conditions in the U.S.

• USGS Earthquake Hazards Program:
Real-time data on earthquakes

• Water data:
From the USGS, Maryland

• National Hurricane Center

• Air Now:
Government site for air quality information

• NWS Climate Prediction Center:
Long-term and seasonal forecasts

• U.S. Climate at a Glance:
NOAA interactive site for past climate data, national, state and city

• Clear Sky Clock:
Clear sky alerts for stargazers

• NASA TV:
Watch NASA TV

• Hubblesite:
Home page for Hubble Space Telescope

• Heavens Above:
Everything for the backyard stargazer, tailored to your location

• NASA Eclipse Home Page:
Centuries of eclipse predictions
Blog updates
Recent updates to baltimoresun.com news blogs
 Subscribe to this feed