Looks like we can count on sunny skies and seasonably hot weather for the rest of the work week, but Nature will likely add thunder and lightning to the pyrotechnic celebrations over the long Holiday weekend. Also on our radar today is some storminess in the tropical Atlantic. More on that shortly.

Right now we're continuing to enjoy the benefits of the high pressure system that's brought us clear skies and relatively low humidities for the last couple of days. (Enjoyed a gorgeous day kayaking out on the Gunpowder River below Monkton yesterday - cool and dry. The river seemed a bit low, but we spotted an otter - a first for me - and plenty of geese and deer, blue herons and kingfishers. Trout seemed happy with the day, too.)

Tomorrow will be the hottest day of the week, with a forecast top of 92 degrees at BWI. 

The 90s are hot for any time of year in Baltimore. The average highs at this time of year are in the mid-to upper 80s. By Friday we'll be back down in the 80s. But the high will be shoving off to the south and east, and we'll come under the influence of a cool front slipping in from the north and west. The front will stall here Friday, and storm systems creeping along the front will mean an increased risk of showers and thunderstorms right through the weekend.

Forecasters out at Sterling say they're not expecting widespread severe storms and flooding out of these circumstances. But we could see "training" storms - thunderstorms and heavy showers that move across the region along a persistent track (like a train!). That often means large amounts of rain accumulating in some locations, while other spots see much less. It's too soon to know just where such training might occur.

In the meantime, hurricane forecasters are watching a tropical wave that's developing off the west coast of Africa, near the Cape Verde Islands. It's early in the 2008 season to see tropical weather cranking up in the far eastern Atlantic. Usually such storms - the sort that can grow to dangerous dimensions as they cross the tropical Atlantic - don't appear this early. They more typically become a problem in late August or September. Some of these "Cape Verdean" hurricanes can sweep north of the Caribbean and track up the East Coast, threatening landfalls from Florida to New England. We all remember one of them - Isabel - which struck in North Carolina and sent a storm surge up the Chesapeake. It flooded the Inner Harbor, Fells Point, Bowley's Quarters and many bayside communities back in September 2003.

But my guess is this is merely a prelude. Everybody's watching for ther season to get started. So far all we've seen has been Tropical Storm Arthur, an oddball that popped up on May 31, just before the official start of the Atlantic season on June 1. It was a small storm, but deadly. Fifteen inches of rain fell in places as its struck Belize and Central America. Five people died in Belize and damages there alone came to $78 million.

This storminess off the African coast is just the first patch to catch our attention since Arthur. But stay tuned.  The tropical Atlantic is pretty warm now. Here's the sea-surface temperature map. Anything above 27 degrees C. (the tan within the brownish band) is 80 degrees F or warmer. That's premium-grade hurricane fuel.