Susquehanna crests, more rain due
The Susquehanna River, swollen by recent rains and melting snow in Pennsylvania and New York, appears to have crested at the Conowingo Dam, with only minor flooding overnight in Port Deposit. Flood warnings for Harford County have been dropped, but a watch continues in Cecil County, largely because of heavy rains expected late today and tomorrow.
Folks along the river remain on watch. Flooding continues in Marietta, Pa., about 35 miles upstream from Conowingo, but the water is receding. The water levels remain high, but discharge from the dam had slowed by this morning to less than 300,000 cubic feet per second. It is also well below the record daily discharge for this date - March 7 - of 462,000 cf/s in 1979. Here's the discharge graph:
As a pair of potent storms approach the region this afternoon, we all can expect heavy rain through the night and into tomorrow.
The barometer at BWI and here at The Sun has already begun to sink sharply ahead of the approaching storms. Forecasters at Sterling say we can expect as much as an inch and a half of rain before it's over late on Saturday. Then the sun comes out for most of next week, with seasonable highs in the 50s.
The problems this weekend come to us thanks to a low developing over Alabama this morning. That one will get here tonight. "In a nutshell, it's going to rain," said NWS forecaster Andy Woodcock in this morning's discussion.
Here's the radar loop. The heaviest rain will hit tonight as the low moves into Virginia. As much as an inch could fall, with the potential to bring the Potomac River to flood stage above Harper's Ferry by Saturday morning.
After a lull, the rain will pick up again later on Saturday as another storm center moves in with a cold front. We'll get more heavy rain and then gusty winds behind the front, continuing into Sunday, even as skies clear off.
Looking ahead, Woodcock says, there's a chance we'll see a "strangely similar" procession of rainstorms exactly a week from now, developing along the Gulf and zipping up the East Coast with a peck of rain for the mid-Atlantic. And that's a good thing so long as your basement stays dry.
Comments
It looks like the above average, twelve year precipitation cycle, that I have written about since 1995, is starting to show it's face around the region again Frank. 1996 was the last cycle year.
One has to wonder what the tropics have in store for us, storm track wise. Since historical river level extremes point toward this cyclical flooding pattern.
Posted by: Jim Hughes | March 8, 2008 8:26 AM