Does your basement get wet in heavy rain? If so, you may not like this forecast. We should get through most of the day today with little more than some showers. But rain will likely intensify tonight as a cold front approaches from the west. Flood watches remain in effect for all of Maryland west of the Chesapeake Bay.

Forecasters out in Sterling are giving us a 30 percent chance of showers today as south winds continue to keep us in moist, mild air. The overnight temperatures at BWI dropped to 48 degrees just after midnight, but turned around and climbed for the rest of the night as more mild southern air piled in, reaching 58 degrees after daybreak. We could approach 70 today in places away from the colder waters of the bay.

Tonight, as the cold front approaches, the rainfall will intensify. The forecast gives us a 100 percent chance of precipitation, and they're calling it "heavy rain," lingering into the morning tomorrow. As much as three-quarters of an inch are possible, with winds gusting to 26 mph.

Forecasters, however, do seem to be hedging a bit. This morning's discussion from Sterling notes that there is very little snowpack in Maryland to worsen the flood risk - and none at all in the urban centers. And it appears the heaviest rain may fall with thunderstorms, which forecasters think will track mostly south and east of I-95. There's some notion that the flood watch might even be cancelled later today, as the storm system evolves.

In the meantime, we can watch the satellite imagery and the radar loops as this pretty impressive system develops, drawing a strong train of moisture out of the Gulf, and dragging a very sharply defined front across the eastern part of the country. If this thing moves quickly enough, whatever heavy weather we get shouldn't last too long.

Then we get a bit of a break late Wednesday into Thursday before the next rain and cold front push through Thursday night into Friday. Stay tuned.