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Weird warmth could threaten record

There's a warm front on the move through our area today, and by tomorrow we could be threatening a 70-year-old record high temperature for Baltimore.

Forecasters say the high at BWI this afternoon could reach 63 degrees. It was 75 this afternoon in Fredericksburg, Va. But as warm air continues to flow in from the south and southwest, temperatures here tomorrow could reach 69 degrees. That's just one degree shy of the 70-degree record set for Baltimore on a Feb. 6 in 1938. A little sunshine in the afternoon could push us into record territory.

The 30-year average for the 5th and 6th of February in Baltimore is 43 degrees. So we're cruising for a 20-degree departure from the norm this week. Tonight's low may stall at 55 degrees - 12 degrees warmer than the average HIGH for the date. Here's AccuWeather.com's take.

That's a big break for homeowners struggling to keep up with their heating bills this winter. Demand for heating energy, as measured by the degree-day count, is running about 11 percent behind the long-term average for Baltimore.  That's money in our pocket.

But enjoy it while you can, because it won't last. A storm system headed for New England will drag a cold front across Maryland late Wednesday. It could come with showers and thunderstorms in the late morning or early afternoon. As much as a quarter-inch of rain could fall.

Behind the front we'll see clearer, drier weather, and temperatures will fall back to more seasonable numbers. By Saturday night we'll be looking at lows in the mid-20s again. Sunday and Monday won't get out of the mid-30s, if the forecast holds up. That would be 10 degrees below the norms.

The colder air, in turn, could set us up for some wintry weather if the right storm comes along. And next week is, at least statistically, the snowiest of the year. For now, 2007-08 is shaping up as the least snowy in six years. We've had just 7.2 inches at BWI. Our long-term average is 18 inches.

Comments

D'you remember "Energy Conservation Week" that ran for a few years in the '70's or '80's? Schools were closed for a week in mid-February to save money. Without fail, temperatures were in the mid-80's! A co-worker always planned skiing trips with his family and couldn't go because there was no snow anywhere! Then we'd get back to "business as usual" and temps dropped like a stone. Of course, some of our biggest blizzards have also struck in February. I guess the upshot is, not much has changed about February over the decades.

It is as the much-maligned Marty Bass is fond of saying, Mother Nature will do whatever she feels like doing.

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About the blogger


Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1993, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Sun's print Weather Page.
Recent articles by Frank

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