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Ice could follow cold, high winds

Cold wind straight out of arctic Canada raked the region yesterday, toppling trees, snapping power lines and launching tons of leaves, branches and trash into the air. It also threatened to shove small cars and empty trailers off the highway. I know. I was in one of them. (A small car, that is.)

Here's a long, but by no means complete list of wind-related incidents across the region. And here's the latest accounting of power outages that BGE crews are scrambling to repair.

Temperatures at BWI dropped to a low of 13 degrees just before dawn this morning. It was the second-coldest morning of the season, after the 8-degree low on Jan. 21. (December's low reading was 14 degrees, on the 7th.

It was 11 degrees out on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville when I got up. That was the night's low. Here are some other readings from across the state.

Ordinarily,  an outbreak of arctic air like this, in the middle of February, would be a setup for a big snowstorm. The cold air is dense, and heavy, and difficult to dislodge. The first coastal storm that runs into it should drop 10 or 20 inches of snow on our heads.

But alas, this cold doesn't seem destined to last. And, while there is a storm headed this way for tomorrow and Wednesday, it's coming from the Ohio valley, so it is likely to affect us mainly with rain. After a cold day today, stuck in the low 30s, we're headed for the 40s for the rest of the week. Here's the Hazardous Weather Outlook for this area. Here's how AccuWeather.com's Elliot Abrams maps out the precipitation:

AccuWeather.com

I say mainly rain because forecasters at Sterling are hedging a bit. The computer models are having some trouble with the strength and timing of the storm system, and exactly when the cold air we're in now will be forced out.

Hence, the morning's discussion says stuff like this (my edits, for clarity, in parentheses):

"Assuming it (storm) comes Tuesday morning-midday (forecast area) will be recovering from a cold start ... So initial precipitation most likely to be snow" (before warm air erodes and it all changes to rain)."

"Am somewhat concerned about northern tier of (counties in Maryland, W.Va. and Virginia) ... Setup hinting that cold air may hang on longer than (forecast) ... There could be a period of freezing rain, maybe for several hours. Maybe for the entire afternoon into evening. From this perspective, don't think we will be able to avoid a headline with this event, especially (Cumberland-Hagerstown)."

The forecast also mentions  a "chance" of more snow or rain Saturday night, the 5th anniversary of the start of the biggest snowstorm on record for Baltimore, back in 2003.

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About the blogger


Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1993, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Sun's print Weather Page.
Recent articles by Frank

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