April tomorrow; February returns Thursday
We're in for a few days of mild, showery weather before February returns later this week. Sort of like a shot of April, with a February chaser. And some sunshine, finally, by Thursday.
Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will rise into the 60s, if the forecast holds up. That's 20 degrees above normal for Baltimore at this time of year. The overnight LOW Tuesday into Wednesday will be 54 degrees, which is 10 degrees warmer than the normal HIGH for the first week of February. Go figure.
The cause is a large high, spinning clockwise over the western Atlantic, and a strong low over the Great Plains, spinning counterclockwise. That puts us in between with both systems driving air northward out of the south or southwest, like a wet sheet through a ringer. (Yes, I remember ringer washers. It was my grandmother's, not mine thank you very much.)
While we enjoy readings in the 60s in Maryland, parts of Central Virginia could reach the 70s on Tuesday.
The record for a Jan. 5 at BWI is 73 degrees, set in 1991.
Wednesday will bring the next cold front in from the Great Lakes, bringing more showers. Up to a half inch is possible, according to NWS forecasters. But we could see highs in the 60s before the front drives through later in the day Wednesday.
Once that's past, we'll go back to drier conditions and more seasonable temperatures, in the 40s into the weekend, with overnight lows around freezing.
The rain won't do much to recharge the water tables, only a tenth of an inch or less today and a similar amount tonight. Wednesday could produce up to a half-inch, though. That would help.
In any case, it was last week's rain that really made a difference. BWI saw 1.8 inches. We had 2.3 out on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville. Here are some other measurements from around the region. Here's how one Baltimorte County well responded:
For the latest USGS rundown on how our water situation looked at the end of January, click here.
Here's how a monitoring well in Wicomico County has been looking in recent weeks - record lows. The southern Shore is facing severe drought conditions, and got only a limited boost from last week's rain:

