I'm glad you posted this because I seem to remember this warmer January weather being a pattern in the past... it's a tease before the frigid temps, ice, and snow of late January and February. Isn't the week of Valentine's Day typically the coldest of winter?

The high temperatures in early January may not be unusual now or for the last few years, but I bet if you go back over the weather records, temperatures previously didn't go so high, so often, this time of year.

This just in from Jim Hughes, an amateur forecaster now working out of West Virginia. He sees a snowstorm in our future:

"Frank,

Our region is currently basking in a sea of warmth, and this weather pattern doesn't resemble winter in the slightest bit, but I wouldn't throw the towel in on winter just quite yet. Even if our region doesn't experience too much snow during La Nina winters. Especially big storms.

You might recall in a telephone conversation that we had a while back, that I had previously thought that the time frame of January 20th-22nd was a good one, for cold-snow. I even gave this date-forecast out on December 10th, at a very popular weather forum (Easternuswx), that is frequently visited by meteorologists, from both the private and government sector. But I did mention back then that I might tweak it by a day or two.

Well I updated this extended outlook this past Friday, and I kept the exact dates. This current pattern, from a global perspective, lines up quite well with two atmospheric climate indices, that are known as the MJO and GWO. So these global pattern indices, and their eight different stages, should be evolving during the next couple of weeks. And there movement into the favorable cold-stormy phase, is just over the horizon.

So my original thoughts of January 20th-22nd, are lining up fairly nicely with the upcoming MJO-GWO pattern trends. Now there are some decent chances, both before, and after this time frame, that could be heralded as other concerns, but I tend to think the our best chance lies within the before mentioned time frame.

Just one other note. Nobody should be dismayed if the patterns changes back over to warmth again. I believe that a strong warming in the stratosphere is going to be underway between February 3rd-6th. These types of warmings, that are located above the troposphere, have a relationship with the overall strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Arctic Oscillation (AO).

Strong stratospheric warmings, like the one I am forecasting, are associated with the arrival of negative departures of the NAO/AO. Our region , and much of the Northeast, usually experience much colder weather when we see a negative departure in these two climate indices. The whole process usually takes about 2-3 weeks to propagate down to the troposphere, depending upon the exact location, and height, and intensity of the warming.

So there is quite a good chance that we see a nice stretch of colder weather much further down the road, anomaly wise. So none of your readers should put away their snow shovels, even after the 20th-22nd. Regardless of the temperature patterns. Because Old Man Winter is over just yet.

For CIndy: You're right. Five of the ten deepest snows in Baltimore (since the 1880s) have fallen between Feb. 11 and Feb. 19. You can look it up: www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/storm-pr.htm

Thanks, Frank. I should really stop buying new dresses for Valentine's Day and start thinking about a new snowsuit.