Models disagree over weekend snowstorm
Looks like we're in for a snowstorm this weekend. Or maybe not. The various computer models don't agree on how the forces of Nature will play out over the next five days. Here's a sampler:
From this morning's discussion at the National Weather Service's Sterling forecast center (I've edited it for jargon):
"GUIDANCE NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE
REMAINS SOMEWHAT SPLIT WITH GEFS/NCEP (COMPUTER MODELS) ... INDICATING A MORE OF A
SOUTHERN TRACK (SNOW)FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO CAPE HATTERAS AND OUT TO
SEA WHILE ECMWF (MODEL) IS MORE ROBUST AND MUCH SLOWER INDICATING A ... TRACK FURTHER INLAND SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE OF A MIXED PRECIP/RAIN EVENT.
WHISTLES. THE 12Z ECMWF ALONG WITH THE NEWEST 00Z GFS AND CANADIAN (COMPUTER MODEL) RUNS NOW PORTRAY A MAJOR EAST COAST STORM COMING OUT OF THE DEEP
SOUTH AND RIGHT INTO THE SWEET SPOT FOR CENTER-JUMPING BOMBOGENESIS
AND DEEP SNOW FOR CENTRAL PA WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW PASSING JUST
TO OUR SE. MANY MEMBERS OF THE 18Z GEFS PUT OVER AN INCH OF
LIQUID EQIV PRECIP OVER CENTRAL PA SAT-SUN. THE MEMBERS THAT DO
NOT PUMP OUT A GREAT SNOW STORM FOR THE REGION KEEP THE SFC LOW
TOO FAR TO THE SE - FARTHER OFF THE COAST. I AM SKEPTICAL THAT
SUCH A SCENARIO COULD PLAY OUT...AS IT WOULD TAKE A PRETTY FAR
SOUTHERLY TRACK...AND THE STEADFAST SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE THAT
HAS PRODUCED THE DROUGHT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL BE TOUGH TO
DISPLACE. I GUESS IT WOULD TAKE A STORM OF THIS MAGNITUDE TO DO
SO...THOUGH. TELECONNECTION FROM THE 5H RIDGE OVER IDAHO FAVOR A
STORM TRACK THAT FAVORS THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE OF A BOMB."
