"Madman" sees weekend "Superstorm"
Five days before the first flake falls, AccuWeather's Henry "Madman" Margusity has already loosed the words "blizzard" and "Superstorm" in connection with this weekend's storm. The extreme-weather blogger has even posted a snowmap that gives Baltimore 3 to 6 inches by Monday morning, while western counties sink beneath 6 to 12. He knows it's way too early to be that smart. But he posted it anyway.
And that's just the kinda guy he is. Nobody else has scootched that far out on the limb yet. But Hank says he couldn't resist.
The National Weather Service is still hedging its bets. The computer models still don't agree, and there are just too many variables to say where the storm will go, and who will get what sort of precipitation. The discussion today suggests a more southerly track would bring us snow, but other models have the storm on a more northerly trajectory, leaving us with rain and mixed precipitation. The official forecast says only "snow likely" on Saturday night, then "chance of snow or rain" on Sunday.
The one thing that does seem to be coming into focus is the fact that a significant "nor'easter" could be brewing. And nor'easters are the kind of storm that has brought Baltimore its deepest and most disruptive winter snow events. There is also talk of this storm scooping up moisture from sub-tropical storm Olga, now pummeling Hispaniola.
Anyway, Henry's map will surely have to be revised as the days slip by, but here it is anyway, just for fun. The "Cat.3" and "Cat.4" stuff, BTW, refers to the Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale. Here's more on that.









Comments
You have to hand it to him...I am sure he gets a lot of e-mails when he hypes something and it turns out to be nothing, but the man gets excited with every possibility of extreme weather.
Posted by: Michael | December 11, 2007 3:21 PM
Thats why henry is the best....i wish all weathermen were like this because at least there giving you something....thats the first thing people ask wen they hear snow is coming ....HOW MUCH??? Way to go Madman keep your forecasts mad and the weather madder
Posted by: nick ruschak | December 11, 2007 4:40 PM
A little something to say about Henry.. I love the guy!!! He gets as excited as us snow lovers in the North East. I'm in Vermont. He has enough guts to go out on a limb and forecast the way he feels things will go according to the information he has. Even though he isn't always right on the money that far out. I wouldn't want him forecasting any other way. Keep up the good work Henry!!!
Mike Osborne
Middlesex Vt
Posted by: Mike Osborne | December 11, 2007 4:43 PM
Henry is a god he is the best I hope its a big blizzard.
Posted by: Dave | December 11, 2007 5:08 PM
Henry is one of the top guys in the buisness. He loves weather, and big storms. His blog is the highlight of my day. I appreicate him going out on a limb here, and that shows just the kind of guy he is. Most people know things could change, but Henry is trying to do his best for the people in the Northeast. Keep up the great work Henry!
Posted by: Timothy Kelley | December 11, 2007 5:11 PM
I love this guy. Always keeps everything interesting. Usually a little hype involved, but thats what weathers all about isnt it?
Posted by: Mikey P | December 11, 2007 5:17 PM
That is the great thing about AccuWeather - they are not afraid to take a stand - days in advance of a major/snow event. The local guys on TV wait until the night before to make predictions and half the time they are wrong just hours before the event starts.
Posted by: Jim Kerr | December 11, 2007 5:23 PM
Good for you Henry! There is nothing wrong with being Pro-Active about the weather. It's fun to hope that we get all that snow!
Posted by: Nikki Wilcox | December 11, 2007 5:32 PM
Cmon folks, get real....first of all, this is the Balt/Wash area, and we're always on the edge of rain/snow/nothing when it comes to these systems. Also, it's December and the water to our East is still relatively warm. IF anything happens, it's likely to be a rain or ice event. Plus, Henry is just one of many "wishcasters" and hype masters on accuweather. He's good, but take his long range estimates with a grain of (road) salt.
Posted by: heatmiser | December 11, 2007 5:33 PM
Remember that the NAO will go negative and Baltimore north and west suburbs will see around 10 inches of snow.
Posted by: Negative NAO | December 11, 2007 5:33 PM
Who has the best answer, when there is no right answer? Henry. Everyone else waits for the right answer.
Posted by: Jason Brooks | December 11, 2007 5:36 PM
I am as in love with the weather as Henry! What good is life without passion or the guts to tell it as you see it. I also like the fact that he is not afraid to say he likes big storms. The PC police probably have him on their hit list. Keep up the good work
John Geis
Addison, NY
PS We got 6 inches of snow from the first storm (1 inch total H2O and .5 inches H2O from the second mixed and rain)
Posted by: John F Geis | December 11, 2007 5:37 PM
Without a few good winter storms to talk about on the east coast the weather would be downright boring. Iam 34 yrs old and I still love an old fashioned blizzard in NYC as much as I did 25 yrs ago. I would love to see a blizzard of monumental proportions later this weekend-----one that will literally parylyze NYC and bring things to a standstill for a few days. How about Jan 1996 or Feb 1978 or Feb 2003 or even Feb 2006. Take your pick. Oh Henry, please deliver the big daddy snowstorm for the big cities and coastal sections this weekend. I've been disappointed too many times with everything changing to rain. Hey, we still have 10 days to go before its even winter. Bring it on!
Posted by: Harold Olsen | December 11, 2007 5:50 PM
Even if we don't get snow in the Poconos of Pennsylvania as Henry is saying we will, who cares? Other weathermen that wait until the last minute to predict a major weather event are wrong anyways, so nothing to lose with predicting this so far in advance. With the previous big storm he's the only one (of the forecasts I read anyways, about 4 or 5) that said a secondary low would develop off New Jersey/Delmarva. He stuck to his guns all the way and that's what ended up happening. Other forecasts would sway with each model run. So you gotta hand it to Henry, he's pretty accurate sometimes; at least as accurate as a a forecast that far out can be, and sometimes even more. And in the end it's Mother Nature that makes the final call, always!
Posted by: Jose Quijada | December 11, 2007 5:50 PM
Henry is one of the best meteorologists in the business! He updated his blog on a regular basis and if he makes a mistake with a forecast, he is the first to state it! Thanks Metro Madness!!
Salvatore
Long Island,NY
Posted by: Salvatore | December 11, 2007 5:59 PM
How much can we get in Brooklyn NY 11230?
Posted by: Lev | December 11, 2007 5:59 PM
Henry is a great meteorologist. I love when he gets excited about "The Big Daddy" storm. I think this could very well be a huge storm to be considered a superstorm. I live by allentown and I hope we just get dumped on because we might not see another one of these storms this winter. I hope not! But with the long-range forecasts it's not looking good. Anyway, I love learning about the weather. I love it so much that I might transfer to another college to learn and work in meteorology!
Posted by: scott kacelowicz | December 11, 2007 6:05 PM
Henry is the man! You gotta love a guy who gets so excited about what he does. I wish everyone had as much enthusiasm for their work as he does for his!
Go Henry...hope you get your "Big Daddy" storm!
Posted by: Martin O'Connor | December 11, 2007 6:05 PM
Henry is the man! When I'm looking for a reasoned assessment of what the possibilities are in terms of meteorolgical extremes, I know that his blog is the place to go. I think he brings out the kid in all of us snow amd storm lovers and isn't the blog meant to be more entertaining than straight news anyhow? We're looking for prognostication based on the facts presented and that's what he delivers time and time again.
More power to you Henry the Weather Madman -- keep it going strong!
Posted by: Steverino | December 11, 2007 6:29 PM
As an earth science teacher for the last 38 years (with a degree in meteorology), I truly respect his candor, analytical approach and courage to call it as he sees it!!
Posted by: paulwiener | December 11, 2007 6:33 PM
Henry is definitely "The Man" when it comes to weather. I read his blog religiously and am always amazed how he predicts the next snowstorm way ahead of all other weather centers. I love his enthusiasm for the "Big Daddy" storms, and it's obvious he loves what he does. Henry ROCKS and I absolutely adore the guy!
Posted by: Susan Ballard | December 11, 2007 6:51 PM
Hey, I love a big snowstorm as much as the next weather geek. And Henry is always entertaining. But when you go for the severe storm hype ALL the time, it will surely get the fans stoked and boost traffic counts on the blog (I do this myself when I feature his prognostications). But it's bound to make you wrong on the science more than you should be. Maybe Henry can afford that. He's a blogger, after all. But NWS forecasters would tell you that when lives and property are in the balance, they can't afford to climb out on a limb and get it wrong.
Posted by: frank roylance | December 11, 2007 6:53 PM
How any can wish for a blizzard that can cause misery to millions in a major metro area is beyond me!
Posted by: Ed Burke | December 11, 2007 6:54 PM
I really enjoy reading Henry's articles each day and it is great that he gets so excited about the Big Daddy Storms! Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!
Posted by: Alice Colcleaser | December 11, 2007 6:54 PM
I am a 65 yr old weather nut and my kids, 33-46, still call me to find out what the weather is going to be. I depend on Henry's blog as I know he will try to be as accurate and not like others who wait till last minute to forecast. I love Henry.... and thanks for taking your wife shopping!!!
Posted by: Ruth Bastarrika | December 11, 2007 6:59 PM
finally a guy with guts. I remember a young fellow named Joe Bastarti, who in the late 70's was all you needed to see. If Joe was on PBS weather chanel at 5:30 it was golden for snow.
Posted by: Mike Cahill | December 11, 2007 7:06 PM
Henry should be the meteorologist on ABC, NBC, and FOX doing the national weather forecast and making a name for hiself, not some pretty boy who gives a general and "safe" forecast....gimme a REAL forecast with REAL reasons to back it up....GO HENRY~
Posted by: winterstormsblog | December 11, 2007 7:37 PM
Love that Henry. He not only says what he thinks may happen with a storm, but he also explains why. Love his blog and probably check it 3 times a day (to the amusement of my wife and co-workers - but then they all come to me when a storm is brewing to get the scoop). And remember folks, when he puts out a snow map this early, he labels it "snow potential" rather than calling it a forecast. He clearly states it will need revision as the time gets closer.
Posted by: Tom Hoefel | December 11, 2007 7:47 PM
love Henry, hate the fact that Detroit is not in the line of this storm. Guess we'll have to wait even longer...
Posted by: jon | December 11, 2007 7:58 PM
If you live in the Northeast and don't enjoy a "Big Daddy" and the excitement preceeding it, you must lead a very boring life. Bring them on Henry, you make things interesting and stimulate our expectations.
Posted by: tmgilroy | December 11, 2007 7:58 PM
I have been following the Mad Man for several years and being a snow plower i love too see his forecasts even if they are off a bit, For the most part he gets them correct. only the rain snow line could be off a bit, but that is a tough call for any weather man. Keep em coming Hen!!!
Mak
Posted by: David Makela | December 11, 2007 8:17 PM
As much as I like a good storm, Henry M. seems a little unprofessional to me (IMHO) - because he seems to be consistently wrong about snowfall totals from Nor'Easters, usually over-hyping them but rarely acknowledging his mistakes on his blog.
Posted by: RD | December 11, 2007 8:30 PM
when I weatherman says, "my hands are shaking as I write this," ...
Posted by: virginia | December 11, 2007 8:36 PM
Repeat, repeat: no chance in France for a snowstorm in Baltimore this weekend...too early in the season, water off the coast too warm, temps too warm over the next few days, and too many variables that have not yet formed to even justify putting together a snowfall map.
Posted by: heatmiser | December 11, 2007 8:44 PM
Henry tells us what could be...He gives us hope!
Posted by: Jan | December 11, 2007 9:02 PM
To the comment of wishing for a blizzard the only can cause misery to millions, well it really depends on how you look at it, it really dosent cause that much misery to anyone, expect it is a inconvinece for most for a day thats is about all most part everyone is out and about in about one day, with out much hassle, expect for the ones that dont slow down to drive and pay attention, kids and grown ups most of them love the snow and it has been years since a really good snow storm and we need one plus it is christmas time, so i hope we really do get one. I am from pa and use to snow constantly and we made it around just fine in the mountains with all kind of snow, it is funny when i moved down here a few flakes put everyone and thing at a stand still it seems most of us enjoy snow, so hope henry is right for the most of us.
Posted by: r henderson | December 11, 2007 9:16 PM
Henry is the man! He has been looking at tis storm for a WEEK now! Go out and stock up on your TP before it's too late!
Posted by: K Franus | December 11, 2007 9:34 PM
Ive always loved extreme weather ever since i was a little kid. I remember when the weather ch came out and I thought it was the best thing ever. With the internet, its just amazing to see how much information you can get and also how many people love following the weather. Mad man is great to get the early scoop on winter storms even though you know hes going out on a limb big time. Any snowboard/skiers or just plain snow lovers want another great site- check out bestskiweather.com with "Dr. Weather" the man knows what hes talking about (there is a subscription fee). If anyone is into following hurricanes or just general knowledge of the climate check out Dr. Jeff Masters on Wunderground.com (click on the tropics link)
Posted by: Tom | December 11, 2007 9:45 PM
I have always said...getting excited about an event is MORE fun than the actual event. With that being said..I AM A HUGE HENRY FAN. Coming to you from the Derby City with my black and white polka dotted boots on and ready for the 3-6 inches expected here!!!
Posted by: Debbie Mefford | December 11, 2007 9:46 PM
Henry is the best in the buisness when it comes to winter storms, remember feb 2007, the major ice and snow storm on the east coast? henry was talking about it well in advance before any TV forecaster even brang it up. henrys the man. im also a fellow weather nut. plzzz santa bring me the BIG DADDY!!
Posted by: g mathias | December 11, 2007 9:48 PM
Love Henry's zest for big storms. But overall Accuweather hypes too many storms especially their screw ups on their count of hurricanes they forecast!
Posted by: Rich | December 11, 2007 10:07 PM
as a lifetime snow lover, winter weather really gets me excited and i too grew up with "weather world" and joe bastardi nailing the snow forecasts with all his flash and candor. snowstorms are awesome and they should happen in the northeast! i've been a weather geek all my life and bastardi was the first guy i knew that shared the same excitement and now there's henry! the guys at weather world and now accu weather have always predicted from their knowledge of how weather "acts" in the area along with computer generated info and not just from what a computerized forecast tells them to say. i check henry's blog and accuweather numerous times a day and i too am harassed at work for being such a weather and snow freak. but i wouldnt have it any other way! bring on the snow and the winds and let 'er blow the roads shut. i love it! snow gets me revved and brings back the kid in me.
shawn in beavertown, pa.
Posted by: shawn brouse | December 11, 2007 10:26 PM
Until recently I lived in Glen Burnie; now I live in Lakeland, FL. Think Madman could send a little snow to us for the holidays??
Posted by: Haji Rodgers | December 11, 2007 10:31 PM
A day cannot go by without reading Henry's blog at accuweather.com
The man is really doing a great job explaining it all and puting all options on the table. I feel as he is my meteorology teacher and mentor. God bless Henry and his family!
Posted by: Jay Class | December 11, 2007 10:36 PM
OMG!!! I'm going to the liquor store!
Posted by: LJ | December 11, 2007 11:01 PM
I love Henry Margusity!Being a weather addict and storm lover myself,his blogs are the first thing I look at when I get up and the first thing I look at when I get home from work.I love it cause he is so passionate about the weather and the storms!Even though I live in Indiana Henry is the first person I turn to when I see a storm show up on the forecast models!
Posted by: Joseph Cooper | December 11, 2007 11:15 PM
I love Henry's blogs. I have turned into a true weather geek in the last few years and he by far is more accurate than the NWS is, EVER. He is forcasting for a huge area and to be so accurate so much of the time is amazing considering all the variables. Between him and ONE local staion I have a better handle on the weather than the Earth Science teacher down the hall who claims to be a weather geek :). Between Henry, Joe B. and some other members at Accu Weather, it is a great website!
Posted by: TAB | December 12, 2007 9:54 AM
I LOVE YOU HENRY!!
It's awsome to see someone so excited about the weather all the time! He is the only one I know that puts himself out there. He's got guts! He's got heart and he's usually pretty darn close. I've been talking about this storm to my co workers for over a week now thanks to Henry and they all thought I was nuts....not anymore!!! Whoo Hoo! You go Henry!
Posted by: Carrie in NJ | December 12, 2007 10:02 AM
Henry would never want to wish misery on anyone relating to the weather. He has a gift and a passion with his weather predictions to help people plan and prepare ahead of time for what potentially may occur in their area. Thank you for your many hours of hard work, dedication, and effort you put into forecasting and the passion you show this nation everyday in trying to nail these difficult forecasts in the best and earliest way that you are able. We know it is a huge responsibility and we truly appreciate what you do!
Posted by: Eva in MN | December 12, 2007 11:50 AM
hey i love the snow and hope we get lots of it !!!!!
Posted by: SANDY | December 12, 2007 1:00 PM
Bring us the big one, Henry! Storms are inevitable - Henry makes them fun to anticipate. Bah Humbug, to those of you who think it's poltically incorrect to wish for "Big Daddy" storms! Go get a life - or better yet, buy some skiis and give it a try! It's so much more fun than wringing your hands over that which can't be controlled!
Topsham, Maine
Posted by: Joe | December 12, 2007 2:27 PM
I am finally glad that I see someone else is seeing and saying how the (weather) is gonna be instead of the pansies trying to downplay the forecast so that there respective business areas won't be hit by a low shopper turnout. In Baltimore I see it as more of a trend,and it gets more complacent with the passing seasons. I always look at what the forecasts are and then make my own senarios, and when they don't coincide with what the weatherpeople predict, I am usually right, as Henry. My family looks to me for the true weather forcasts and have given me the nomenclature "DOPPLER". Now instead of Marty, Henry is my new wearher idol
Posted by: Mike | December 12, 2007 3:26 PM
god i hope we get a major major major major storm! I have an exam on monday that i would LOVE to have off for! please pray for snow everyone! woo woo!
Posted by: jenn | December 12, 2007 3:44 PM
Oh my God! I'm down to 10 rolls of toilet paper!!!
As a previous poster mentioned, Henry and Joe Bastardi nailed the February 07 storm at least ten days in advance. Henry RULES!!
Posted by: Mike | December 12, 2007 3:54 PM
Folks, get real...it's NOT going to snow around here this weekend. Henry is way out of line on this one. Take this to the bank.
Posted by: heatmiser | December 13, 2007 12:39 AM
I absolutely love Henry and look forward to reading his blogs every day! I am a life-long Pittsburgh girl and enjoy hearing about potential snowstorms heading our way! I admire him for putting his thoughts out there way before anyone else around here has the guts to say anything about snow coming our way. Seems like most of our newscasters would rather it be 80 degrees all year round! lol I say, if you don't like the snow, move south!!Keep up the great work, Henry! : )
Posted by: Lisa | December 13, 2007 8:43 AM
I hope it snows 2 feet. Otherwise all you'll hear about is Steroids and baseball this weekend. oh and the Ravens losing to the Dolphins 10-3
Posted by: John | December 13, 2007 12:58 PM
How much for Philly?
Posted by: PJ | December 13, 2007 2:21 PM
Well. it appears to be happening once again. We are going to be disappointed here in NYC with another plain rain event. It just seems to never end for these parts. Eventhough we are having a bit of sleet to start off, its all downhill from here as the plain rain takes over. What is it going to take to get a solid snowfall across the coastal plain this winter? I know its way early in the ballgame but it hurts alot because the long range forecast is for a very warm winter ahead so I was hoping to atleast salvage a decent snowstorm now. Any chance that the La Nina is showing signs of weakening a bit which would present the chance that we can throw that winter forecast out the window and bring in some serious winter weather for the balance of the winter? Any hope at all? Please, Henry, end our pain on the coastal plain! Bring us a big daddy snowstorm..........Harold Olsen.....NYC
Posted by: harold Olsen | December 16, 2007 2:36 AM