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Rain clouds gather; drought persists

We may see more rain late today and tomorrow than we've seen at BWI since mid-August. The cold front that's been kicking up violent storms and tornadoes in the Midwest and southern Plains in recent days is slowly making its way east. It's shoving aside the high-pressure that's been giving us such delightful autumn weather.

By late today we can expect clouds to thicken ahead of the front as warm, humid air continues to move in from the south. We may see some showers overnight, although they're only giving it a 30 percent chance at best. Here's the national radar loop.

But Friday, as the front finally moves through, we should see the rain chances improve, with some threat of thunderstorms. They're putting the likelihood of rain at 60 percent for Friday, with a few tenths of an inch to as much as a half-inch possible before the day ends - more if you happen to be right under a thunderstorm.

It's not going to break the drought, but it may wet the flowers and green up the lawn a bit. The extent of severe agricultural drought across Maryland this week remains unchanged from last week. Here's this morning's Drought Monitor Map. The hydrological drought - low water in streams and wells - continues to spread westward. Here's the long-term outlook on drought.

The rain should be over by mid-morning Saturday. Temperatures for the weekend will be a shade cooler, but not by much. We're talking about mid-70s rather than upper 70s to near 80 degrees. The long-term averages for Baltimore at this time of year are in the mid-60s, so we're still enjoying unusually mild autumn weather. And things will warm up again by early next week to more than 10 degrees above normal. We've had just 19 days of cooler-than-average weather in the 79 days since Aug. 1.

It will be drier, however, and breezy as the new air mass moves in from the west behind the front. 

The bottom line is a wet Friday, followed by another terrific weekend.

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About the blogger
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1993, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page.
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