October cool, Sahara dry
Notwithstanding that little spit of rain we got last night (okay, so we got a bit more than a spit - 0.38 inch here at Calvert & Centre), the outlook beyond tonight is for more dry, clear weather deep into next week. The weird October heat wave is history, but this drought is by no means over.
Forecasters out at Sterling are calling for highs today through the weekend of about 68-69 degrees. That is precisely the average for this time of year at BWI. The overnight lows in the forecast are in the mid-40s - also exactly normal for the season. So, what may feel unseasonably cool after a few heady days in the 90s this week, is actually exactly "right" for this time and place.
In fact, through yesterday, October 2007 at BWI was averaging 72.9 degrees - a whopping 13 degrees above the long-term average for the month to date. It couldn't last, of course. The warmest October on record for Baltimore was in 1947, when the average temperature at month's end was 64.8 degrees. Normal for the full month is 55.4 degrees.
The precipitation outlook, however, is way out of whack. There is a "slight" chance for more showers tonight, forecasters say. But skies will clear by morning and then we're looking at sunny days and starry nights at least through Tuesday. There's not a drop of rain in the forecast. The driest October on record for Baltimore was in 1963, when only a trace of rain was detected. We've already got that one beat.
The new Drought Monitor map is out this morning. It shows the region of "severe" drought in Maryland has crept north into Baltimore and southern Baltimore County. The percentage of the state in severe drought now covers 61 percent of the state, up from 47 percent last week.
The average precipitation for Baltimore in October is 3.16 inches. We've had just 0.10 inch, officially at BWI, so far - all of it last night. We're now almost 10 inches behind the averages for this year.
There are no "Red Flag" fire warnings up yet. But forecasters are closely watching the low humidity and stiff winds forecast for later this week.








Comments
Frank, I just wanted to say that I really enjoy your weather blog. You offer up some very interesting and fascinating information.
You're doing a great job! Thank you!
Posted by: Sam | October 11, 2007 11:41 AM