CSU experts predict "very active" hurricane finale
The final two months of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season should be "very active," according to forecasters at Colorado State University. October and November should produce four more named storms, hurricane experts Phil Klotzbach and William Gray said today. Two of those will reach hurricane strength, and one will be at least a Cat. 3 storm with top sustained winds above 111 mph, they said.
As if on cue, the National Hurricane Center today began tracking a new tropical depression - TD 15 - far out in the Atlantic east of Bermuda. It's no threat to land.
Here's the full report. Click on the first item under "News" in the upper lefthand corner. Here's the updated National Hurricane Center's forecast, issued in early August.
The CSU forecast is a tad milder than the team had forecast earlier for October/November. They had predicted five named storms during the two-month period.
For the full season, the group had said on Sept. 4 that 2007 would end with a total of 15 named storms, with seven becoming hurricanes, and four reaching Cat. 3 or higher.
So far, the actual totals are 13 names storms, with four hurricanes, of which two have reached Cat. 3 or more. So they're close to the mark in the named-storms category, but look like they're falling short of their hurricane predictions by almost half.
Everybody in the hurricane game predicted an "active" season this year, pointing to a continuation of a decades-long peak in storm activity, based on warmer sea-surface temperatures and favorable atmospheric pressure and wind patterns.
And it has been fairly busy. August ended with about 130 percent of the long-term average tropical activity. September ended at 92 percent, a bit below the long-term averages, Klotzbach and Gray said.
September did produce eight named storms, tying the September record. But most were short-lived and weak, such as Gabrielle, picture above in the Atlantic on Sept. 5.
In the coming weeks, however, Klotzbach and Gray expect more favorable conditions and an extended hurricane season, thanks to the influence of a La Nina phase in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
So far, TD 15 is the only storm being watched out there. Elsewhere, all is quiet. Officially, the season ends Dec. 1.
Comments
The question that no one will ask and none of the forecasters want to answer:
If we were still using pre-1960's technology how many TS and Hurricanes would have been 'officially' recorded? (ans. about 8 TS and 2 H). Remember, the 'averages' include the 1940s and 50s and 'recorded history' goes back more than a century. Our 'above average' number of storms says more about our technology than climate change. Even so, this year once again shows that extraterrestrial events such as sunspot activity are better predictors than the 'consensus of scientists' forecast models.
Posted by: James Carr | October 21, 2007 9:48 PM