How good are those forecasts, really?
Ever wonder how accurate the National Weather Service really is? Are the forecasts getting any better? The American Meteorological Society has issued a statement detailing just how good (or bad) the forecasting today is. Here are some highlights:
* The accuracy of daily forecasts beyond eight days is "relatively low."
* The accuracy of monthly and three-month forecasts of average temperature and precipitation has doubled since 1995.
* Five-day forecasts of the location and intensity of major cyclonic storms are as accurate today as three-day forecasts were in the early 1990s.
* In 2006, the average 48-hour hurricane track forecast proved to be off by 111 miles. But that's an improvement over the 336-mile error in 1985.
* 48-hour precipitation forecasts are now as accurate as 24-hour forecasts a decade ago.
Want more? Here is the full report.