Storm looking warmer
The latest runs of the National Weather Service's supercomputers are now suggesting this week's storm will take a more northerly track than previously forecast. That means it will draw in more mild air from the south and push the rain/snow line closer to Baltimore.
Prognosticators are now saying there is a stronger chance that, while Baltimore will see snow Tuesday, it may mix with, or turn to freezing rain or rain as the storm progresses. That would hold down snow totals. Here's the afternoon discussion from Sterling.
Here's one of AccuWeather's forecasters on the topic. Here's the latest forecast from the Weather Service, in Sterling, Va.
Meterologist Jeff Warner, at Penn State Weather Communications, told me this afternoon that some mixed precipitation is in the cards for Baltimore.
"I do think you'd go over, probably, to some sleet and actually some rain as well there in Baltimore. Not far to your west, though… farther back into the cold air, there will be quite a bit of snow," he said. He added this storm will produce 10 inches or more in some locations. But probably not for Baltimore.
That said, AccuWeather's snow hawk Henry Margusity is sticking to his snow-guns. Ignore the models, he says.
Comments
Henry is right...ignore the models. What they do is throw things around and they put the best scenario, and the worst. Then they throw out the middle case scenario. They then throw out all kinds of jib jab. The models are just playing with the storm. It may mix, but ignore them for now, the storm is so far away. Look back Tomorrow morning into Tomorrow for a better idea.
Posted by: Alex | February 11, 2007 5:59 PM
Well it does seem that all the lastest models and all the weather stations are saying that the eastern shore are getting rain, seem funny when your saying throw it out, everytime they seem to get us hiped up for snow this happens and then it is just a big let down. I really wish it was going to snow.
Posted by: rebecca henderson | February 11, 2007 6:05 PM
Having lived in Buffalo, NY for 4 years, then moving closer to Oswego (where there is accumulation thus far of 131"!) No one here really knows what snow is and I don't suspect we will find out with this storm. I agree, they get us hyped up for snow and then ...nothing. But you know, regardless, schools will be closed-again! LOL I too, wish it would snow-at least a few inches to give us some excitement and perhaps even a little play time this winter!
Posted by: Chelle | February 11, 2007 11:30 PM
I think they should tell the folks that there really isnt nothing to worry about with this storm and stop making everyone panic like they do. Mainly they do this cause the stores need the increase in sales for winter stuff and everyone falls for it, runs to the store and buys everything, then they are stuck with it without every getting to use it. That is a shame. Your right about not knowing what it is to be in 131 inches of snow, I would like to see just 3 inches and for once they predict it right, instead of guessing. Anyone could tell the weather then.
Posted by: rebecca henderson | February 11, 2007 11:41 PM
Well, Well, isnt this funny, no one even the forecaster didnt get this storm correct, for us. next time they say they say freezing rain we will have snow. Ha
Posted by: sarah bryant | February 12, 2007 7:55 AM
Be nice, readers. Remember that weather forecasting isn't like predicting eclipses. It's still an art. They use supercomputers because there are so many variables to deal with. They've gotten much better at what they do, but it's quite literally much harder than rocket science. And forecasting winter weather for the Baltimore region is one of the toughest assignments in the biz. Storm tracks, warm air from the Gulf and Atlantic, arctic air from the north - everything converges here where millions of people are waiting for the Truth. Get the rain/snow line wrong by 100 miles in Kansas and nobody notices. Be off by 50 miles here and everybody complains. Anyone out there who can do better is invited to post their forecasts here. Then we can all see how you do.
Posted by: frank roylance | February 12, 2007 11:50 AM