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February 27, 2007

Now La Nina, and hurricanes

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says rapidly cooling surface waters in the eastern and central tropical Pacific are signaling the approach of another La Nina event. And with La Nina comes an increased likelihood of Atlantic hurricanes during the coming season. Read more here.

One reason the 2006 hurricane season fizzled was the unexpected arrival of an El Nino event - a warming of the Central and Eastern tropical Pacific. El Ninos tend to suppress Atlantic hurricanes by creating wind shear that decapitates the storms before they get well organized. Other factors, including dust blowing out over the Atlantic from Africa, also kept the hurricane count low last summer. (El Ninos have other impacts around the world, including drought and wildfires in Indonesia.)

La Ninas suppress hurricanes in the Pacific, but do the opposite for the Atlantic basin. Again, other factors come into play, too. But La Nina may be one that contributes to this year's storm count. Famed hurricane forecaster William Gray was predicting a more active 2007 storm season even before conditions began edging toward a new La Nina. Here's his forecast, issued in December. It includes the increased probabilities for East Coast landfalls in 2007.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:02 PM | | Comments (2)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Comments

Do you recall how William Gray fared with his prediction for 2006?

Gray muffed the 2006 forecast, as did the National Hurricane Center. The season turned out much quieter than anyone expected early on because last summer's El Nino developed after the forecasts and stifled storm development. Gray spent the summer scaling back his predictions to adjust to the El Nino effect. He'll probably adjust his December forecast this spring based on whether and how this La Nina develops.

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About Frank Roylance
This site is the Maryland Weather archive. The current Maryland Weather blog can be found here.
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page. Frank also answers readers’ weather queries for the newspaper and the blog. Frank Roylance retired in October 2011. Maryland Weather is now being updated by members of The Baltimore Sun staff
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