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February 10, 2007

A few inches? A foot?

The guesses are still all over the map as to just how much snow we'll get out of this storm. What does seem apparent is that we will get a brief return to normal February temperatures (low 40s) Monday, followed by, perhaps, some rain, then falling temperatures overnight Monday into Tuesday with rain changing to snow overnight, then snow for Tuesday into Wednesday, and maybe longer.

Just how much we get depends on whose computer models you want to believe, and which track the storm finally decides to take.

Here is the National Weather Service forecast for Baltimore. They have posted a Hazardous Weather Outlook statement. Here's a bit of their discussion late Saturday (edited by me for clarity):

"(COMPUTER GUIDANCE) SUGGESTS THAT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS COULD BE
WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN EAST OF MOUNTAINS LATE MONDAY...CHANGING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. SUSPECT
EFFECTS OF COLD AIR DAMMING NOT BEING CONSIDERING IN GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS. (MEANING THE COMPUTERS MAY NOT BE TAKING THE ENTRENCHED COLD AIR INTO ACCOUNT IN THEIR TEMPERATURE FORECASTS)

AS MAIN SYSTEM APPROACHES TUES ...THIS GUIDANCE CYCLE... SUGGESTS THAT CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION SPREADS AS FAR NORTH AS
(WASHINGTON) TUES. (COMPUTER MODEL) THEN POINTS TO A LOCATION NEAR
MASON- DIXON LINE FOR BEST BANDED (HEAVY) PRECIPITATION TUES AFTERNOON...

(STORM) SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL TO PAINT SOME GOOD SNOW
TOTALS...BUT IT'S STILL TO BE DETERMINED EXACTLY WHERE THAT WILL BE. WE NEED ANOTHER
(COMPUTER) RUN /OR TWO/ ... BEFORE HEADLINES CAN BE RAISED."

And here's AccuWeather's take. One of their bloggers is guessing a foot of snow for Baltimore and Washington. But I wouldn't take that to the bank. Yet.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:50 PM | | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Comments

I expect between 6 and 12 inches for DCA. Sleet may cut down on snow totals. Models show a warm buldge of air at 700 mb pushing in aloft. The GFS forecast sounding for DCA warms slightly above 0C for several hours Tuesday night. If the 00Z GFS is correct with the storm track, then areas NW of the district may see all snow with 12+ inches possible.

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About Frank Roylance
This site is the Maryland Weather archive. The current Maryland Weather blog can be found here.
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page. Frank also answers readers’ weather queries for the newspaper and the blog. Frank Roylance retired in October 2011. Maryland Weather is now being updated by members of The Baltimore Sun staff
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