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November 28, 2006

Out like a lamb, then ...

It looks like November will go out like a lamb for Baltimore, while December comes in like a lion. Just like last year.

Weather forecasters say the cold and storms intensifying in the Rocky Mountain states and the Great Plains are headed this way. We should stay hazy and mild for the next couple of days. Daytime highs could approach 70 degrees Thursday and Friday. That would come within 5 or 6 degrees of the record highs for those dates.

Then the cold front comes through on Friday, along with a rainstorm, dropping Saturday's highs to the 40s, maybe 50 degrees.

If all of this sounds vaguely familiar - apart from recalling the seemingly weekly storms we've seen this month - it may be because it mimics the pattern of last year's passage from November to December.

The last week of November 2005 saw highs in the 50s and 60s, and the month ended 2.6 degrees above normal. Then December rolled in, with highs in the 30s and 40s - 10 to 12 degrees below normal for the dates. With it came snow. We saw 3.5 inches during the first week of December last year.

Could we see snow during the first week of December 2006? Can't say for sure yet. But Some forecasters are noting the cold arctic air that will settle into the U.S. next week. And they also see the possibility of a new coastal storm developing early next week. Here's the National Weather Service discussion:

"LATE IN THE WEEKEND...MODELS ENSEMBLE
DATA SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. AT THE MOMENT...MAJORITY OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THIS SYSTEM WELL SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND TAKE IT OUT TO SEA WITH NO IMPACTS TO OUR AREA. HOWEVER...SOMETHING TO WATCH OUT FOR AS IT LOOKS WILL BE IN A COLD PATTERN NEXT WEEK."

Posted by Frank Roylance at 2:52 PM | | Comments (0)
Categories: Forecasts
        

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About Frank Roylance
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page.

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