Some rain totals
The rain's not quite over for Baltimore, but here are some preliminary Ernesto rain totals from around the region as of late last night. BWI has seen 3.22 inches as of this morning, about where they expected in forecasts late Friday morning. Here is a more comprehensive list.
We've had just 1.31 inches here at 7 a.m. at the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville. It's still raining at about a tenth of an inch per hour, and the barometer is still near its low of 29.81 for this storm, but it does appear to have turned this morning, and is headed back up. The wind shifted from east to west at about 6 p.m. last night, so we're surely on the trailing side of the low. The peak wind here was just 17 mph, around 1 a.m., but my anemometer is sheltered by the house.
If you have a rain gauge, leave a comment and let us know how much rain you've seen. And don't forget to post your photos on the Readers' Photo Gallery on the main page of MarylandWeather.com.
This storm sure didn't live up to the forecasters' earlier 5- to 10-inch predictions for rainfall - at least not around Baltimore. I wonder how much the experience of the past two years in Florida and the Gulf has affected their "better safe than sorry" genes, resulting in more cautious, "worst-case scenario" forecasting.
It's also quite possible that they mean what they say when they tell us that meteorology has vastly improved the accuracy of storm-track forecasts (which they got right with Ernesto), while forecasters' skill at predicting the intensity of these storms lags way behind. They did seem to get the rain right 24 hours out. Somebody said recently that intensity forecasting for tropical systems is about where track forecasting was in the 1950s. Ernesto may be a case in point.