TD5 could be a storm by today
Tropical Depression 5 seems destined to become the season's fifth tropical storm - Ernesto - sometime today. Now brewing in the southeastern Caribbean, the bad weather appears to be getting better organized, and could become the season's first hurricane in a few more days.
And it seems to have designs on the Gulf of Mexico, which has very warm sea surface temperatures - gasoline for hurricanes. The only way out of the Gulf, of course, is to crash ashore somewhere in Mexico or the U.S. Unless the storm fizzles, we will be reading about this one for the next week or more.
Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space. And here is AccuWeather's take on the storm's future.
Comments
This season is not going to live up to the expectations of the experts Frank. Regardless of whether TD 5 becomes Ernesto or not.
The 90 day SOI average is currently very negative and climatological history tells us that the Atlantic basin does not see way above average activity during these time frames.
So we have a battle going on between the favorable AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ) and the developing EL Nino. Whose development I have been touting for the past few months.
The El Nino seems to be winning here in my opinion. At least from the point of keeping the pre season forecasts from reaching their goal. No hurricanes yet. Just tropical storms.
Posted by: Jim Hughes | August 25, 2006 2:57 PM