The tropics remain calm as July approaches its mid-point. Thus far we have seen only one tropical storm, Alberto, which drew much attention from a Katrina-spooked media corps as it came ashore on the northern gulf coast of Florida on June 13. One person died in the storm, but elsewhere its winds and flooding and tornadoes did relatively little damage.

By this time last year, the Atlantic basin had already produced five tropical storms - three of which grew to hurricane force. These included:

TS Arlene:  June 8-13. Landfall on the Florida panhandle

TS Bret:  June 28-30. Landfall in Mexico.

Hurricane Cindy: July 3-7. Category 1. Landfall in southeast Louisiana.

Hurricane Dennis:  July 4-13. Category 4 storm that left 42 dead from Cuba to Florida.

Hurricane Emily:  July 11-21. The only Category 5 hurricane ever recorded in July. Struck Grenada, and Mexico. Six were killed, and 90,000 were driven from their homes in Mexico.

The rest of the 2005 season was similarly hyperactive, with 28 named storms, the last of which faded away in early January 2006.

While the quiet early weeks of the 2006 season have been welcome, they are no guarantee that we will escape this year unscathed. Atlantic hurricane seasons typically peak between mid-August and early October. And it only takes one bad storm in a heavily developed area to make a terrible season.

Forecasters have predicted above-average activity this year, but falling somewhere short of last year's record count. Sea-surface temperatures are warm and, with few hurricanes thus far to sap that energy, the seas remain well-primed for storms. Anything above 80 degrees Fahrenheit (26.6 Celsius) will support tropical storm formation when other conditions fall into place.