Wet summer ahead?
There is probably no science to support the idea, but here's a note from the past that might make you wonder whether we're in for a wet summer this year. Intrepid Sun researcher Paul McCardell has come across this item from the 1907 Baltimore Sun Almanac. The writer takes a look back at the weather during 1906 (exactly 100 years ago):
"The summer of 1906 was remarkable for the rain which fell in the three months from June 1 until August 31. The early spring was rather dry in Maryland, but with the beginning of June the rains were unusually frequent and heavy, not only interfering with farming operations, but causing a great deal of damage.
"Crops of almost all kinds were affected. In Baltimore, where accurate records are kept, Director Von Herrmann, of the Weather Bureau, said it was the wettest summer since 1870, thirty-six years.
"The amount of precipitation during the three months was 19.10 inches. In 1870, during the same period, there was 22.58 inches. The great rainfall last summer was due to the remarkably low barometric pressures and the constant southerly breeze, which brought an abundance of moisture from the Atlantic Ocean."
Our early spring, in 2006, has also been remarkably dry. March was the driest on record for Baltimore. April is running about average. For the year to date, we are still about 3 inches short of the 30-year average for the region, measured between 1970 and 2000. The official climate forecast for the June through August period, however, shows no particular trends either way, on temperature or precipitation. That means it could go either way.
Normal precipitation for the summer looks like this:
June: 3.43 inches
July: 3.85 inches
August: 3.74 inches
Total: 11.02 inches
The totals in 1906 were:
June: 5.10 inches
July: 7.96 inches
August: 5.80 inches
Total: 18.86 inches (Not sure why this number, from NWS archive, does not agree with the Sun Almanac total. Either way, a whole lot of rain.)
Comments
I am not to sure how anyone could use 1906 as an anolog year regardless of what happens during this upcoming summer.
We had just come off of a somewhat moderate to strong El Nino during 1905-06. The total number of tropical systems during 1905 was five.
Other important oceanic and atmospheric teleconnections were also different back then.
We were also right around solar maximum in 1906. So the space weather relationship with our climate patterns was much different.
The Baltimore - Washington metropolitan area was much drier during February and March of 2006 then it was in 1906.
The precipitation totals for BWI and DCA were 6.84 and 6.76 during February and March 1906.
The preliminary totals this year are 2.82 and 2.51 respectively. This is like night and day.
This somewhat current moist pattern, which is actually just about average. Might very well be connected to the recent directional changing of the 30 mb QBO from east to west during the past two weeks.
This upper atmospheric change, which takes place at the equator, can sometimes change stagnant weather patterns. I even talked about this upcoming possibility at a local weather forum earlier in March.
If you hate the weather recipe you have to add a different ingredient. This was done. But how long will this last. And is this permanent?
I am not to sure right now but I would not hold on to the belief that our overall precipitation pattern is finally going to change for the better.
Especially after only two weeks of average rainfall.
Posted by: Jim Hughes | April 17, 2006 12:03 PM