Some sort of wintry weather is on its way to Central Maryland this weekend. That much seems certain. But will it be snow, rain, or some sloppy, nasty, icy mixture? The National Weather Service's forecast office in Sterling, Va. - which covers most of Maryland from Allegany County to the Bay, is still reluctant to make the call.

It all hangs, as usual, on where, precisely, the storm center tracks. And here the forecast models still don't agree.

Most - the consensus - predict the storm center will move out of the lower Mississippi valley, riding along the southern jet stream, and track off the Carolina coast. Our air stays cold and the low pressure intensifies and brings us all snow. "This low pressure system has the potential to produce heavy snow across the Mid-Atlantic Saturday and Saturday night," the discussion from Sterling says. In meteorologists' parlance, "heavy" snow is 4 inches or more in 12 hours, or 6 inches in 24 hours.

But some models suggest the storm will track farther to the north and west, and allow warmer air to move into our region. That would mean more snow to our west, but more of a mix for us.

For now, the forecast says there's a 30 percent chance of light snow starting after 1 a.m. Saturday morning. The chances climb to 60 percent for "steady" snow after 1 p.m. and then decline to 40 percent into the evening. Any accumulation at Baltimore-Washington International Airport would be the first there since Dec. 15.

Other forecast offices in the region are already making accumulation predictions. The Charlestown office says West Virginians could see 3 to 6 inches in the eastern "lowlands," with 6 to 10 inches in the higher elevations. Blacksburg, Va. is expecting mixed precipitation at first in NW Virginia, then "moderate to heavy" snows, mainly in the mountains.

AccuWeather, as usual, is hyping the forecast more than anyone, and predicting heavy snow - up to a foot in a swath from northern Virginia to New England.

Finally, while this storm comes a bit ahead of his schedule, Jim Hughes, an amateur forecaster from the DC area, is feeling pretty good about the recent wintry turn in the weather and the approaching storm. He predicted something like this, albeit for Feb. 14-16, a few weeks back, based on solar activity and a warming over the Arctic.

Here's his comment:

"I started hearing more and more about this storm the night before last. It looks like it's the true deal. Although some people are now talking about it hugging the coast even more. So the coastal areas may get mix if they are right.

"I guess I missed the timing of this wave. It looks like it will come about two days before my first date. You can not deny the amplitude was  there though. How many organizations could even tell you 3 weeks out that a particular 4-7 period will be snowy?

"Maybe I can get lucky and have a smaller one come through our region. Will not be the same.....I wanted to nail this big one just like I did last year.   - Jim"