February has a history of delivering giant snowstorms. And it's been so mild throughout January - nearly 9 degrees above average and only a trace of snow - that it seems a good bet that February will swing us back closer to the winter averages for this region. What do the math profs call it? Reverting to the norm?

There's no sign of that in the short-term forecast, however. Instead, we're looking at daily highs in the upper 40s and 50s.  That's well above the averages for early February, but closer to what is typical for late February.

Here's the deal: The average daytime high temperatures for February range from 42 degrees at the beginning of the month, and rise to 48 degrees by month's end.  The overnight lows climb from 24 to 29 degrees. The records for the month have stood for many decades:  The hottest February day in Baltimore was Feb. 25, 1930, when the mercury climbed to an amazing 83 degrees. The coldest date was Feb. 9th, when it was 7-below zero. That tied a record first set on Feb. 10, 1899.

The average snowfall in February for Baltimore is 6.4 inches. But it's a month that can do much more damage in that department. The deepest one-day snowfall in February was the storm of Feb. 11, 1983, when 22.8 inches piled up at Baltimore-Washington International Airport. It remains the region's third-largest snowstorm on record.

The biggest ever here - at least since official record-keeping began in 1883 - was also a February blast. It was the 28.2-inch Presidents Day Weekend storm of Feb. 15-18, 2003. That included the 21.8 inches that fell on Feb. 16, the second deepest one-day total on record for February. It also turned out to be the snowiest month on record for Baltimore - 40.5 inches. It wasn't even close. The next-snowiest was February 1899, with 33.9 inches.

What does the weather service think will happen this February, in the wake of this remarkably mild January?  Here is part of YESTERDAY'S climatology discussion:

"FOR THOSE WHO LIKE IT COLD... THERE MAY BE HOPE. THE NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION) INDEX HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN NAO FORECAST DOES SHOW RATHER TIGHT CLUSTERING IN THE NEGATIVE THROUGH
ABOUT THE FIRST HALF OF FEBRUARY. ALSO... THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER MEDIUM RANGE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS SHOWING INCREASING CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGINNING FEB. 6-8.

"INTERESTINGLY... BEYOND THE TEN WARMEST JANUARIES... 6 OF 10 OF THE
FOLLOWING FEBRUARIES WERE ABOVE NORMAL ... 2 OF 10 WERE NORMAL .. AND
2 OF 10 WERE BELOW NORMAL."