Frost possible tonight
As skies clear and the winds calm, there is a good chance for frost to develop tonight. Temperatures will sink to the low 30s throughout the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan area - at least outside the urban cores. It's the blue region on this map. The frost means vulnerable plants caught outdoors will likely be killed. And the potted tomato plant on my deck - which still has a few red tomatoes - will be toast. Here's the frost advisory from the National Weather Service folks in the Sterling, Va. forecast office.
Sterling says this is the second night that frost advisories have been issued in the region. The first was issued last night, but there was no frost. We're right on time with these advisories. The average date for first frost (temperatures dipping below 32 degrees) at Baltimore-Washington International Airport is Oct. 28 - today. The average first frost in downtown Baltimore is Nov. 19.
Comments
Are we going to see any snow? And how soon. Do you think that we are going to get more than average?
Posted by: Bill | October 28, 2005 5:42 PM
I have no idea, Bill. Baltimore has gotten snow in October in the past, but the first sizable snowfalls don't usually occur here until November. The snowiest October on record was in 1925, when 2.5 inches fell in Baltimore.
November does better. I can remember a pretty big storm on Veterans' Day some years ago - probably 1987, when 6 inches were recorded at the airport. The snowiest November was in 1898, when 9.7 inches fell.
The last I checked, the weather service gave us even money on above-average or below-average temperatures and precipitation for this winter. No guidance there.
On the other hand, if you accept the prevailing scientific wisdom, as global temperatures rise we can expect more intense precipitation events. That doesn't mean more snowstorms - it could actually mean fewer. But those storms that do occur are more likely to carry more moisture, and drop more of it per event. That means more big snows like the one back in February 2003, and, where temperatures are too high for snow, more heavy rain events like the ones we've seen this month - the rainiest October on record in Baltimore.
Thanks for your note.
Posted by: Frank Roylance | October 28, 2005 7:14 PM